10 Ways to Increase Your Profits on the Bubble

[Foucault]

(Note: I was working on point number 10 when my browser crashed. I’m rewriting it, but it’s going to be more rushed this time, so just pretend when you are reading it that it is like three times better than it is.)

Why are tournaments so profitable for the 2+2’er? It’s because you are always getting a giant overlay. In a 180-man Stars tourney, for instance, you are competing against no more than 100 opponents, and quite often less. In other words, there are at most 100 other players trying to win the tournament. The rest are just trying to cash, and might as well be playing a different game altogether. These players are not competing with you for the top prizes. That's an overlay of nearly 50%!

In the early stages, they are playing to accumulate, just like you are. Their strategy is not intrinsically –EV, though their play may be.

In the money, most of them are happy to be there and will gamble it up, and are too short to do anything else anyway. Again, their strategy is not intrinsically –EV here.

On the bubble, however, they are folding much too often and leaving a ton of money on the table. You need to put yourself in a position to scoop up as much of it as possible, as this is far and away the best opportunity you will have to accumulate chips. Here are some tips on how to do that.

1. Raise. Even if you know this already, you probably aren’t doing it enough. Never open limp. Not under the gun, not on the button, not ever. The odds are just too good that you will win it without a showdown.

2. Fold. Just because A9 is ahead of your range when you push over a late position raise doesn’t mean you should call. There are a lot of players on the bubble who know you are stealing but are too afraid to push back, and there are a lot more who think the correct strategy is to wait for big hands and then ‘punish’ your raise. If it starts happening all the time, then you can loosen your calling range (and in fact find yourself in some very +EV spots of a different sort), but the first time someone comes over the top, they’ve probably got a hand. You can steal back the chips you are folding away in a single orbit, whereas one or two thin calls could cripple your stealing ability. There is so much easy money to be had without going to showdown on the bubble that you shouldn’t be eager to get there.

3. Target the Weak. The decision to open raise is determined by three factors, in order of importance: who is in the blind, your position, and your cards. You should start identifying likely play-to-cashers before the bubble even begins, and continue paying attention to who is not defending blinds and who seems to be making big laydowns.

4. Size Up the Competition. The play-to-cashers are not the competition. At this point, they are just giving away free money, and all you have to do is take it. But you still have to play poker with the other play-to-winners, who are also trying to scoop up all that dead money. These players will be a lot more willing to re-steal, steal raise, etc., and you need to adapt accordingly.

5. Look at the Chat Box. The dialogue in the chat box gives you a lot of clues about who is playing to cash and about evolving table dynamics. I’ve seen players say things like “I would have called if it weren’t the bubble”, “I’m folding JJ here”, and “Yes! Yes! Yes!” every time they win a pot. It’s like they want me to run them over. Players will also comment on how often you’ve been raising, or threaten to call “next time.” Pay attention to these clues, as they can help you to make tough decisions when facing a re-steal.

6. Spread It Around. Most players take it personally when you raise their blinds. If you abuse the same player often enough, he will feel like he has to stand up to you, and you will have baited him into playing correctly. Conversely, many play-to-cashers will recognize that you are stealing but not particularly care as long as they don’t feel singled out. So if you raised weak-tighty #1’s blind the last two orbits, go after the player on his right this time.

7. Protect Your Blinds. If you call or re-raise out of your blind a few times, most aggressive players will back off, as there is usually much easier money to be found. Play-to-cashers will occasionally make weak attempts to steal as well, usually min-raising or open limping from late position. They will often back off of even reasonably strong hands when seemingly pot committed when faced with the prospect of bubbling out.

8. Protect Their Blinds. A good, aggressive bubble player on your right can really cramp your style, as he will always be steal-raising ahead of you. But don’t look at this as a thorn in the side, look at it as an opportunity: he is putting a lot of money into the pot that he can’t defend. His only options are to keep raising and donating to you, or to stop raising and let you get back to picking on the weak players’ blinds; it’s a win-win for you. If the play-to-cashers won’t defend their blinds, you should do it for them.

9. Make the Last Bet. Just because a player decides to see a flop with you does not mean he has a big hand. With so many players stealing, re-stealing, and defending, there are a lot people seeing flops without especially strong hands. More often than not, they are hoping to get a cheap showdown or bully you off of your marginal holding. If you play your draws aggressively, you’ll find that most players are no more willing to go to the felt after the flop than they were before. You just need to structure the betting in such a way that you are the one pushing all-in, because it is a hell of a lot harder to call a push with a marginal hand than it is to push with a marginal hand.

10. Come Stacked. Although the bubble is a profitable time to push-bot, a 3x big blind raise from the table chipleader has a lot more fold equity than an 8x all-in from a short stack. Ninety percent of the time I choose accumulation over survival, but most tournaments have such juicy bubbles that it can be correct to structure your pre-bubble strategy around getting to the bubble with a stack that will allow you to steal. This may mean taking gambles when you’re short in hopes of doubling up to a healthy stack, or it may mean passing on thin gambles when losing the pot would leave you unable to steal on the bubble.

[Ansky]

Nice post overall. I do have a few things to bicker about though (I'm too cynical to ever shut up).

[ QUOTE ]
1. Raise. Even if you know this already, you probably aren’t doing it enough. Never open limp. Not under the gun, not on the button, not ever. The odds are just too good that you will win it without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
ehhhhh. There are plenty of spots where open-limping the button can be fine. ie, I may do it against a good thinking/ aggro big blind.


My other thing to whine about is this:
[ QUOTE ]
3. Target the Weak. The decision to open raise is determined by three factors, in order of importance: who is in the blind, your position, and your cards. You should start identifying likely play-to-cashers before the bubble even begins, and continue paying attention to who is not defending blinds and who seems to be making big laydowns.

[/ QUOTE ]
To define the order of whats important in stealing spots is kind of silly. It is a balence of all of them and in some spots some are weighed more heavily than others. You also completely neglected to mention stacks sizes, a factor probably as important, if not more important than your 3 listed. In fact, I don't think stack sizes was mentioned anywhere in this thread?

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post overall. I do have a few things to bicker about though (I'm too cynical to ever shut up).

[ QUOTE ]
1. Raise. Even if you know this already, you probably aren’t doing it enough. Never open limp. Not under the gun, not on the button, not ever. The odds are just too good that you will win it without a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]
ehhhhh. There are plenty of spots where open-limping the button can be fine. ie, I may do it against a good thinking/ aggro big blind.


My other thing to whine about is this:
[ QUOTE ]
3. Target the Weak. The decision to open raise is determined by three factors, in order of importance: who is in the blind, your position, and your cards. You should start identifying likely play-to-cashers before the bubble even begins, and continue paying attention to who is not defending blinds and who seems to be making big laydowns.

[/ QUOTE ]
To define the order of whats important in stealing spots is kind of silly. It is a balence of all of them and in some spots some are weighed more heavily than others. You also completely neglected to mention stacks sizes, a factor probably as important, if not more important than your 3 listed. In fact, I don't think stack sizes was mentioned anywhere in this thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both fair points.

The issue of stack sizes is complex enough to warrant a lengthy post all its own, and cross-cuts most of these ideas. I'd say that the principles I mention here can be understoond independently of stack sizes, though effective application of them requires understanding the role played by stack sizes. It was just more than I wanted to bite off here, but you're absolutely right.

[Ansky]

Agree.

As a whole everything is good and valid, but as is true with everything in poker, bubble exploiting is situational.

[mornelth]

Very nicely summarized.

[mephisto]

Great little article.

I have a small follow-up question: How do you go about re-adjusting your strategy vs. ultra-aggressive bubble players who pre-flop all-in? Let's say he's a mid-stack... How do you deal with him if you are shortstacked, mid-stacked, huge stack?

[Goodi]

Nice post foucault (and gratz again for your win yesterday)
I definitly think the bubble need improvement in my game. Technically when you notice stack. Where do you set the point where you can steal? I also figure your hand requirement for the steal is fonction of your stack? I mean If you have an underaverage stack what do you really do?

Another question about the bubble more definition but When start the bubble. If i remember a post from bestcellar he was speaking of bubble with 35 left in a 180 sng. Is there a defined % to say you were on the bubble? Is is just the last 20 players to get out before the money?

[runout_mick]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice post foucault (and gratz again for your win yesterday)
I definitly think the bubble need improvement in my game. Technically when you notice stack. Where do you set the point where you can steal? I also figure your hand requirement for the steal is fonction of your stack? I mean If you have an underaverage stack what do you really do?

Another question about the bubble more definition but When start the bubble. If i remember a post from bestcellar he was speaking of bubble with 35 left in a 180 sng. Is there a defined % to say you were on the bubble? Is is just the last 20 players to get out before the money?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, the closer to the money you get, the looser your standards become. Once there's only a few spots until cash, you're basically raising any two from the button, CO, and as many other spots as the table will let you (especially, but not limited to, if it's folded to you).

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a small follow-up question: How do you go about re-adjusting your strategy vs. ultra-aggressive bubble players who pre-flop all-in? Let's say he's a mid-stack... How do you deal with him if you are shortstacked, mid-stacked, huge stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. As I said, I don't like to make big calls the first time someone comes over the top. I don't feel like I have to hollywood it up and pretend I have hand I can call with or anything like that. I know they know I'm stealing, and I'm okay with just throwing away KT or a weak A or something. If it keeps up, then I'm going to have to make a big call, and this can actually be a profitable situation in its own right. You just have to get a sense of what the guy's range is for coming over the top of you, and then call when you're ahead.

This may require compromising the principle of not putting yourself in a spot where losing a showdown will cripple your ability to steal. If there is a player frequently coming over the top of your raises, he is already preventing you from playing the bubble as profitably as you'd like. He is forcing you to slow down, raise less often, and throw away some of your raises. It is very +EV to get this guy off your ass.

Ansky mentions open-limping the button against an aggressive BB. It's not something I ever do, but I'm interested to hear more about what would go into this decision....

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitly think the bubble need improvement in my game. Technically when you notice stack. Where do you set the point where you can steal? I also figure your hand requirement for the steal is fonction of your stack? I mean If you have an underaverage stack what do you really do?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are other ways to steal besides having everyone fold to your open raise. If you've got <10 BB's, you should be open-pushing aggressively until you are back in more comfortable territory. 15-20 BB's is an ideal size for re-stealing against an aggressive raiser (and you don't have to be in the blinds to do this). With 10-15 BB's, I sometimes make a sort of modified open push where I make smaller-than-normal raise (mabye 2.5x), hoping for a fold/call rather than a push (I'm usually folding to a push) and then I push most flops if I get called. My objective is always to get my stack up to a poing where I can steal effectively. Where that line is depends on your table position, the size of the stacks behind you, the size of the blinds, whether there are antes, etc. You get a feel for it after a while.

[ QUOTE ]
Another question about the bubble more definition but When start the bubble. If i remember a post from bestcellar he was speaking of bubble with 35 left in a 180 sng. Is there a defined % to say you were on the bubble? Is is just the last 20 players to get out before the money?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's whenever your table starts to tighten up. As another responder pointed out, it's more of a sliding scale where you can get more and more aggressive the closer you get to the money. With one player to go before the bubble, I'll usually push any two from late position if there are only short stacks behind me (just be sure the bubble boy doesn't bust at another table during the hand, or someone might suddenly grow a pair!).