|
|
#1
10-02-2006, 07:47 PM
|
|||
|
|||
MLB Playoff Series lines
There are generally ridiculously +$EV bets in the playoffs. Here are the ones I think are huge.
Tigers +290 @ Yankees. - WTF? That's like the odds the Padres got against the Cards last year. This is nowhere near an accurate line. Even if the Tigers are limping, I just can't see this not being +++$EV. Dodgers +140 @ Mets. - The Mets are way overperforming their third order win projections, according to BP. I feel the public is on the Mets, the Dodgers should be able to hang with them. This isn't a pick I'm totally sold on, by any means, but I do think it's signifigantly +EV. I also suggest keeping tabs on the Cardinals-Padres line. Public hopefully bets Cards pretty heavily. 
|
|
#3
10-02-2006, 07:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
Baseball Prospectus puts out a win projection system using expected runs scored/runs allowed based on every at-bat in the game, adjusted for strength of schedule. Very useful for projections.
|
|
#5
10-02-2006, 10:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
What do people think of Detroit at +240? I only have money at one book right now, I can not withdraw from their due to a bonus, and i'm not about to open any new accounts (Don't have any money left in neteller anyways).
I'm leaning towards the Yanks at -335 (and yes I have to bet every series). Ken
|
|
#6
10-02-2006, 10:43 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
detriot +240 is way way better than yankees -335. i think +240 is really close to the true line. think about it this way., a lot of respected posters said detriot had value at +280. +240 is 40 cents away from 280 -335 is 55 cents away from 280. so not only is -335 further away from 280, the true line is likely to be even closer to 240 if those respected poster are correct.
|
|
#7
10-02-2006, 11:03 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
tigers +292 and rising. I like it. Watching for now.
|
|
#8
10-02-2006, 11:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
Yeah, this is amazingly +$EV, and might only get better.
|
|
#9
10-03-2006, 02:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, this is amazingly +$EV, and might only get better. [/ QUOTE ] Starting to build DET here.
|
|
#10
10-03-2006, 02:59 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: MLB Playoff Series lines
It hit +300. I think the Yankees are my favorite team now.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
