|
|
#1
10-18-2007, 04:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Heads up oop with a K that may be good
Villain ist 38/28/2,5, multitabling winning regular $15/$30 Limit Holdem 4-handed Hero opens in the SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], BB calls. Flop 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero bets, BB calls. Turn 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I think BB would have raised any pair without a flushdraw on the flop. At this point i think she has a flushdraw, a K (possibly both) or something very strong that didnt need protection on the flop. If I check here I expect hands without showdown value and monsters to bet. If I bet I expect monsters and draws without showdownvalue to raise. A King will probably call, but unfortunately Im not sure about all that. And I dont know what to do now. Any insight is very welcome. Or should I better ask my friend RIO what this one is all about? 
|
|
#2
10-18-2007, 05:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Heads up oop with a K that may be good
This one is super read dependent (you should have more than 38/28/2.5), but is a pretty interesting spot. What site? Are those stats filtered for 4-handed? Things I would consider are villain's:
ASB - higher ASBs tend to 3 bet more as well (less likely to have an A here) Fold to Flop Bet % - If it's in the mid-low 20s he's probably peeling more than just [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s and pairs here. Ratio of flop AF to Turn AF, and Turn c/r - If flop AF is 3 and turn AF is 1.8 he should tend to bluff raise flop more often, not wait till turn to pop. Depending on specifics I can see b/c, b/f, c/c, c/f all being viable. I don't know if I'd ever bet the river UI after betting the turn. Anyone?
|
|
#3
10-18-2007, 05:52 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Heads up oop with a K that may be good
af,
can you give me a scenario when b/c would be correct? i almost always c/f here.... seems like he is either calling us down, or raising us for value or as a semi-bluff. with this guys stats, he will 3 barrel enough that we are going to have to pay 3 bets to see a showdown if b/c the turn, and he won't bluff so much that we can b/calldown for induced bluff equity. otoh, if you c/c the turn, he will bluff the river enough with missed draws that we will not see showdown for just the turn bet often enough to be profitable. and his value bet/bluff ratio on the river will be such that c/calldown is not profitable either. that is how it seems to me anyway.
|
|
#4
10-18-2007, 07:55 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Heads up oop with a K that may be good
[ QUOTE ]
can you give me a scenario when b/c would be correct? i almost always c/f here.... seems like he is either calling us down, or raising us for value or as a semi-bluff. with this guys stats, he will 3 barrel enough that we are going to have to pay 3 bets to see a showdown if b/c the turn, and he won't bluff so much that we can b/calldown for induced bluff equity. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, b/c is definitely the least frequent option here, and c/f is probably #1, followed by c/c. I would b/c if I had a specific read that this guy was really aggro on the flop, and tends to spazz out postflop. (One player that comes to mind is OG_da_cahser. Not saying he's bad, just super aggro and capable of some big street bluff raises). If we have reason to believe villain is calling our steal raise 100% of the time (specifc read or FBBtS of <25ish) and we have reason to believe villain is calling our flop cb close to always (again, specific read or FBBtS of <25ish), then I don't see how c/f as a default can be correct. Lot's of people will peel flop any 2 here, hoping to take it down with a turn or river bet UI. Our opening range should be wide enough that they will be correct to bluff the turn 100% if we check, because we will be folding crap often. I think K-high is pretty good here against a weaker than random range. The river is tricky. Yes, if we always c/c turn c/c river he will only bet river for value, and if we always c/c turn c/f river he'll always bet, and we will never see SD so we should just fold the damn turn. This seems like a spot for some game theory, adjusting for any tendencies we think villain has. In general I think getting to SD passively against this type of opponent in this situation has significant strategic benefits outside of the vacuum.
|
|
#5
10-18-2007, 09:22 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Heads up oop with a K that may be good
[ QUOTE ]
Lot's of people will peel flop any 2 here, hoping to take it down with a turn or river bet UI. Our opening range should be wide enough that they will be correct to bluff the turn 100% if we check, because we will be folding crap often [/ QUOTE ] On a side note, I think this is an important concept in general, and one that deserves serious analysis. That is, times when turn bluff equity alone justifies a flop peel. I have noticed when playing HU against decent bots that they seemed to use this concept alot -- they made some very bizarre flop and even turn calls that could only be explained by it.
|
|
#6
10-19-2007, 06:49 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Heads up oop with a K that may be good
Stats are filtered for 4-handed. As I mentioned I dont think he is peeling the flop light (he has no tendency to). I play with him a lot and have never caught him do this against me. Nevertheless there is a chance he does it here because he will recognize that this may be a good spot for floating.
In the hand I assumed he was not doing it this time, but I feared to play check/fold because it would be exploitable if he sees me check/fold often in this spot. That would invite him to steal even more pots from me in the future.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
