Final Table of Midnight Madness (10+1) on FTP. Push or fold?

[B Esco]

Let me start by saying that I have been reading these forums for about a year now and appreciate all of the posts and great information. I have decided to start posting as well. I hope I can help newer players get better and continue to learn from all of you veterans.

We are 6 handed and the villain in this situation is on a rush. He was at 35k in chips 5-7 hands ago. He's shown AK twice, JJ, and AA since then. I have been at the same table with him for a little over an hour and he's a TAG player. I hadn't seen him show down a hand worse than 88. My read was 88-KK since he was raising UTG after showing so many hands recently. I kinda felt desperate at this point and figured I wouldn't see a better hand. Is pushing this knowing you're behind and he'll call correct? Do I fold and hope for a better spot in the next 3-4 hands?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t12000/t24000
(Ante: t3000)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t321292
Hero: t140876
CO: t749070
Button: t434424
SB: t304293
BB: t619545

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t72000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t137876</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls t65876 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t263876)</font>.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t329752, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t329752)


Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t329752, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t329752)


River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t329752, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t329752)


Results:
Final pot: t329752
<font color="#ffffff">Hero showed 9s As</font>
<font color="#ffffff">UTG showed Qh Qs</font>

[registrar]

You're way behind his range (88+, Ajs, AQo+ seems reasonable) and you have no FE so this seems really bad. If you really want to make a move on this pot, I guess you can stop and go but better just to fold.

Edit to note that you can't stop and go in position so just fold.

[usha]

This is tough. Your pretty much desperate with your M but with you read you are way behind and you have 0 FE. I think you have a better chance to fold this and open shove the next hand.

[Pokerfarian]

My intial thought was this is significantly -cEV because your crushed by his range. This isn't a situation where you should take a -cEV gamble. Therefore you should fold.
But is his range really as tight as 88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+? 6 handed, it could be wider, but I guess looking at chip stacks he really shouldn't be stealing light here so it is tight enough to make it a clear fold.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
But is his range really as tight as 88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+? 6 handed, it could be wider,

[/ QUOTE ]

Not wide enough. The only worse hand he's ever going to have here is KQ. He's never got a weaker ace and the rest is pairs.

But I also think that his range could be tighter because he's just been on a chipping up rush. Most players will want to sit tight.

[4CardStraight]

Assuming our chips have no extra credit ( which they should since the pay scale slides, and since we should have an edge on our opposition) We need 44% equity in the hand from the overlay of the blinds. There is also a possibility that one of the 4 behind us wakes up with a top 3% hand that they will go three ways with.

Ignoring both of those considerations we need him to be this wide in order to have an ok pot odds push (assuming we were to close the action)

Hand 0: 44.800% 42.54% 02.27% 4450020 237074.00 { A9s }
Hand 1: 55.200% 52.94% 02.27% 5538169 237081.00 { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }


So hes open raising QTs here into the field? QJo? A7s? KTo? Probably not.

And the above factors should NOT be ignored. Theres about a 12% chance that someone behind us wakes up with AK,JJ+. We should be giving the chips in our stack a 10% premium or so, because we are better than our opponents and because the payscale slides.

So yeah, this is a fold, and its not very close. We have almost 0 fold equity, we are behind his range so far that the overlay from the blinds is not enough, and we are not closing the action, so we may go 3 ways with hands that have us totally crushed.

4Card

[B Esco]

Thank you for all of the replies. After sleeping on this, waking up, and looking at it fresh, I hate this play for pretty much every reason already mentioned. I'm definitely crushed here by anything that the villain has and even if my read is off, I have to figure that he has at least an ace that dominates mine. The breakdown from 4CardStraight was especially enlightening. I think that I saw myself as the low man and in need of a blessing to have any chance to continue on. With the blinds so high, I was hoping to get in when doubling up still meant something. Either way, it was a bad way to play this hand and a good way to blow 5 hours of hard work. I'd say I need to work on my stamina and late game focus. I appreciate all of the help.