Ugly river spot vs gary stevenson NLCASH

shaundeeb · #1 08-25-2007, 12:29 PM

gary is a lot better then me and he knows I feel that way. we've been battling for a while now he;s made some hero calls so have I the valuebetting is def getting much thinner.

we weren't 3betting that frequently though, on the river I consered shoving folding and calling.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($2445)
Button ($1802.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Button raises to $30, Hero raises to $100, Button calls $70.

Flop: ($200) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $150, Button calls $150.

Turn: ($500) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($500) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $335,

KakiTee · #2 08-25-2007, 12:41 PM

b/f suits better, call or fold as played, definitely not a goo dspot to raise in.

shaundeeb · #3 08-25-2007, 12:53 PM

why not he never has a flush he is betting any flush 100% of the time on the turn with our stack sizes.

cwar · #4 08-25-2007, 01:05 PM

Pushing and folding seem like the most legit options to me, is he ever value betting or bluffing with worse two pairs on the river?

shaundeeb · #5 08-25-2007, 01:14 PM

thats what I was thinking I am pretty sure he can Vbet KsJx here and play the same.

cwar · #6 08-25-2007, 01:21 PM

This is definitely a really tough hand because his range is very murky in my mind, I feel like its unlikely he will be value betting two pair hands here or even turning them into bluffs so I think his range is strongly in the Ax and 9x range maybe with some floats that he is now bluffing, the only thing to dissuade me from pushing is that he could make a big call with Ax (even 9x because in his mind once you push you should have a flush or a hand that any straight can beat), I think I still push depending highly on how what you think your image is at the moment. Also I dont think calling is even a reasonable option.

cwar · #7 08-25-2007, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
thats what I was thinking I am pretty sure he can Vbet KsJx here and play the same.

[/ QUOTE ]
You still cant call for value IMO:

Board: Js Ts 5s Qh Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.942% 82.07% 03.87% 22991846 1084666.00 { AJs-ATs, KJs+, Q9s, J9s, T9s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AJo-ATo, KJo+, J9o, T9o }
Hand 1: 14.058% 10.19% 03.87% 2853668 1084666.00 { KQo }

Him betting KJ here will add a lot of value to pushing however.

Schpacko · #8 08-27-2007, 02:58 AM

I dont get that. Maybe im just a bad player, but i would never push here, because i would never ever fold an Ace myself in this spot, because most of the time a push is not a flush but an Ace or a nine that tries to represent the flush.
The only hand we dont beat and he could fold, is a 9x IMO. Or is he really capable of laying down an ace?
I dont like risking 1450 to win about 830 in this hand.

BarryLyndon · #9 08-27-2007, 10:56 AM

I think you have enough showdown value to just call here. If you push, he's going to think something is "up" with his straight and he's going to call you down. At the same time, he always lays down two pair here. If you think about it another way, he probably thinks that you are betting a made flush 100% of the time on the turn as well, so you're CR on the river would come off as too suspect.

Barry

Nichomacheo · #10 08-27-2007, 11:28 AM

Nasty.

I don't get why you can't call. If he knows you are making thin value bets, then you would bet this river with an ace. When you check he can be reasonably sure you don't have an ace, which makes his bet so good.

What flush can he possibly have here? I don't see him calling a 3-bet with like 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but its possible. Nor do I think he would call the 3-bet with like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Any other hand he cant really have because of the J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] except like, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I think you have to call here because 1) You can't represent the flush and 2) He's too likely to be taking advantage of your weak line to make this a fold.

How's my logic?