NL50 - medium overpairs

restless · #1 08-22-2007, 03:29 AM

These kinds of hands always have me guessing...
How do you strike a good balance between getting value from your hand, avoid getting sucked out and *not* turning your hand face up or into a bluff???

Hand 1 - Villain is unknown

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($62.02)
UTG ($33.49)
MP ($68.62)
Hero ($48.50)
SB ($45.96)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $10, Hero calls $48.50 (All-In)

Is this raise for value or will i just fold out weaker hands and get called by better?

Assuming that my hand is best, whats the value of denying my opponent a chance to bluff at scarecards/hit is hand ??

Hand 2 - I have very few hands on this villain, but he seems loose. No idea about his AF.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($138.08)
BB ($29.76)
Hero ($50)
MP ($55.95)
CO ($60.03)
Button ($25.46)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $3.5, Hero calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero raises to $18

Anyone prefer to raise the flop instead? Is this turn blank enough to raise it up here?

Jzo19 · #2 08-22-2007, 04:20 AM

umm hand 1 is pretty bad , he's almost never calling without the nuts (set) ,and he could be doing this with a ton of PP's , i think calling is best here since you have position on him

hand 2
i like raising the flop 2 price the draws out , but this is fine ...

ontiltsoon · #3 08-22-2007, 04:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
umm hand 1 is pretty bad , he's almost never calling without the nuts (set) ,and he could be doing this with a ton of PP's , i think calling is best here since you have position on him

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You call, pot is $25. How much are you calling on the turn if a blank comes? If you call on the turn even a 1/2 a pot bet you will be facing a River $50 pot with $25 or so left.

Just trying to learn as this spots make me sick and I usualy don't know how to play them [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Harry Fong · #4 08-22-2007, 04:36 AM

Hand 1 - Too much! Villian is now going to fold any hand you have beat. You will only get called when you are almost sure to loose.

Hand 2 - Too low! Raise his bet 3 fold and get some folding equity working for you.

PleasureGuy69 · #5 08-22-2007, 05:06 AM

I call on the flop on hand 1.

On hand 2, I wouldn't raise the turn but I'd call. If he has two overs, he's about 11% to hit, if he has a flush draw he is about 20% to hit. Of course if you knew he had a flush draw, you'd raise. But unfortunately, sets and other hands that beat you are also in his range too so I'd call and fold to a river bet.

PleasureGuy69 · #6 08-22-2007, 05:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 - Too much! Villian is now going to fold any hand you have beat. You will only get called when you are almost sure to loose.

Hand 2 - Too low! Raise his bet 3 fold and get some folding equity working for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

His hand has good showdown value. Why would you want folding equity?

rjacobs003 · #7 08-22-2007, 05:15 AM

Hand 1: What are the thoughts on calling and then firing again on the turn for say 1/2 pot? I've actually managed to pick up a number of pots with this play. If he comes over the top ont he turn again, it's definitely time to give up. Top pair will often call this though and you often get a fold to this play as well. If he flat calls, a read on his WTSD% and WTSD win rate would be good to know. Thoughts?

PleasureGuy69 · #8 08-22-2007, 05:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: What are the thoughts on calling and then firing again on the turn for say 1/2 pot? I've actually managed to pick up a number of pots with this play. If he comes over the top ont he turn again, it's definitely time to give up. Top pair will often call this though and you often get a fold to this play as well. If he flat calls, a read on his WTSD% and WTSD win rate would be good to know. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds bad. By doing this, you're turning your hand into a bluff because only better will call. Also, a good opponent will pick up this bluff and can very will raise you out of your hand.

restless · #9 08-22-2007, 07:36 AM

thanks for the comments guys.

i've thought a lot more about Hand 1. I'm trying to get these EV calculations right so please if you spot some errors feel free to correct me here.

I'm trying to estimate the EV of pushing so we're basically interested in 2 things in this hand, Villains min-raising range and his all-in calling range.

i'm pulling this out of my ass so again, feel free to disagree...

min-raise range: 44-99,54s,67s (29 combos) + some % of air. lets say 3 more combos (10%)
calling range: 44,55,99,54s,67s (10 combos). TT has ~25% equity against that range.

EV of push = 0.7*20 + 0.3*0.25*(20+20) - 0.3*0.75*25
= 14 + 3 - 5.25
= 11.75

That seems really really massive to me, so i'm thinking this has to be wrong ??

Anyways, if this is close to the truth, it can act like a baseline for comparison wrt to calling the minraise.

so if i call here, is there any way i can fold on turn or river? (villain has less than a potbet left?)
the only reason to call would be to hope for a cheap showdown or hope that he stacks of on a weaker holding.
it seems to me that i'll only get cheap showdowns if villain is behind me and since i have no idea about his bluffing frequency i might just get taken to vauetown on 4th and 5th here.
Do you guys feel that i will on average make more than +11 in EV by just calling the minraise?

(if my ranges are reasonable a fold is lol)

cliff notes: if villains raising-range is way bigger than his calling range (3:1 or more), a push is like money in the bank. calling lets me play the guessing game for 2 more streets.

maca9 · #10 08-22-2007, 07:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: What are the thoughts on calling and then firing again on the turn for say 1/2 pot? I've actually managed to pick up a number of pots with this play. If he comes over the top ont he turn again, it's definitely time to give up. Top pair will often call this though and you often get a fold to this play as well. If he flat calls, a read on his WTSD% and WTSD win rate would be good to know. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I've done this too at times and seems to work ok. Although I'm sure there is far more experienced members who can advise the long term +EV or -EV of this tactic!!!