25NL: call turn with over cards, straght and flush draw?

yeedog · #1 11-12-2007, 01:26 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($25.25)
Button ($37)
SB ($44.55)
BB ($27.30)
Hero ($30.65)
MP ($31.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $1, MP calls $1, 4 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, MP calls $1.50.

Turn: ($5.35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP raises to $8, Hero???

 I guess this could have been a bad call but this guy has called the flop and folded to a turn bet. He played 33/13. I felt that if I hit my straight or flush then i'd get the rest of his stack.

I figure he has 2 pair and won't fold. Bad call??? I thought I had the odds as it was 4.50 to call in a 16.85 pot but maybe it is still an easy fold...

River: ($21.35) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $8, Hero????

 Just call here right? Maybe he has the full house but would I not get value from say somebody with the straight? Worst flush card to hit as it pairs the board for me. 

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ac Kc (flush, ace high).
MP has Js 9d (full house, jacks full of nines).
Outcome: MP wins $61.65.

bsball8806 · #2 11-12-2007, 01:41 AM

Why are you checking this river? I b/c, it's unlikely he has a full house, and he probably plays QK the same way after your check on the river. Even if he has a worse hand like Q9c, he's still calling you down.

Nick C · #3 11-12-2007, 01:45 AM

Calling the raise on the turn is easy -- you have 10 completely clean outs that are close to being enough on their own even just in terms of immediate odds. But you probably have some implied odds too, and in addition to that your two board-pairing flush outs will frequently give you the best hand, and meanwhile your overcards are worth something too (although I don't think you should call a big river bet if an A or K falls).

Before that, the turn bet is a little more questionable, I think. The card that fell is really bad for you, for a number of reasons (among those reasons is this: Whatever folding equity you might've had versus, say, QT or even KT probably just went away). Probably I would just check the turn and call if Villain gave me a reasonable price.

On the river, I'm not sure what's best, but certainly you're not folding for $8. I'm scared, though, partly because Villain's flop/turn line represents a lot of strength and partly because JT is such a popular and overrated hand among fish, and of course a flopped set is also possible. But he could easily have KQ or even T9 or something worse instead.

yeedog · #4 11-12-2007, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you checking this river? I b/c, it's unlikely he has a full house, and he probably plays QK the same way after your check on the river. Even if he has a worse hand like Q9c, he's still calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if I didn't check i would have tossed out a 15 dollar bet and I figured that only the full house would call at that point. A straight would be scared of the flush and may fold.

I wanted to see what the villain would do at this point maybe even give a hand like AJ or AT a chance to bluff at it. With a small bet i was likely to re-raise all in, which i did here actually....

Out of the 150 hands I played at this table this was my only showdown hand I had. I either lost everybody on the turn or got out when I had nothing. So somebody has to have a hand to get to the river at this point against me I figure.

bsball8806 · #5 11-12-2007, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you checking this river? I b/c, it's unlikely he has a full house, and he probably plays QK the same way after your check on the river. Even if he has a worse hand like Q9c, he's still calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if I didn't check i would have tossed out a 15 dollar bet and I figured that only the full house would call at that point. A straight would be scared of the flush and may fold.

I wanted to see what the villain would do at this point maybe even give a hand like AJ or AT a chance to bluff at it. With a small bet i was likely to re-raise all in, which i did here actually....

Out of the 150 hands I played at this table this was my only showdown hand I had. I either lost everybody on the turn or got out when I had nothing. So somebody has to have a hand to get to the river at this point against me I figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think only a full house calls you? I think KQ calls, obviously a lower flush calls/raises, and depending on how donkish he his, AJ or KJ might call. Heck, he might even have Q8. Not betting this river is bad in my opinion

yeedog · #6 11-12-2007, 02:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Calling the raise on the turn is easy -- you have 10 completely clean outs that are close to being enough on their own even just in terms of immediate odds. But you probably have some implied odds too, and in addition to that your two board-pairing flush outs will frequently give you the best hand, and meanwhile your overcards are worth something too (although I don't think you should call a big river bet if an A or K falls).

Before that, the turn bet is a little more questionable, I think. The card that fell is really bad for you, for a number of reasons (among those reasons is this: Whatever folding equity you might've had versus, say, QT or even KT probably just went away). Probably I would just check the turn and call if Villain gave me a reasonable price.

On the river, I'm not sure what's best, but certainly you're not folding for $8. I'm scared, though, partly because Villain's flop/turn line represents a lot of strength and partly because JT is such a popular and overrated hand among fish, and of course a flopped set is also possible. But he could easily have KQ or even T9 or something worse instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks lots of good insight here.... If i check the turn what would have been a reasonable turn bet to call? My initial thinking would be up to $3, would that be correct?

I would then stack off on the river tho correct? I bet around 10 and villain re-raises all in, I have to call and if they have a full house so be it I lost.

I probably would have folded if an A or K hit the river even to the $8 bet. I just can't see TPTK being good there. Would that be a bad play??

bsball8806 · #7 11-12-2007, 02:03 AM

nope, that's how i'd play it

Nick C · #8 11-12-2007, 02:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
well if I didn't check i would have tossed out a 15 dollar bet and I figured that only the full house would call at that point. A straight would be scared of the flush and may fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there are many players who would fold KQ. Nevertheless, the problem you do have on the river is that KQ is 12 combos and JT/J9 is also 12 combos. I want to discount the J9o somewhat (even though I know that's what Villain actually had), but then there are also flopped sets to worry about. And while 87 and Q8 are possible, I don't want to give too much weight to those hands.

Anyway, you now have a hand you can't fold, and I think checking is all right. Villain might fire again with QJ-AJ (once he's made the ambush turn raise, I think we can expect a river follow-up bet a good chunk of the time no matter what he has). And if you bet and get raised and the rest of the stacks do go in, I'm not even sure you're a favorite.

yeedog · #9 11-12-2007, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why are you checking this river? I b/c, it's unlikely he has a full house, and he probably plays QK the same way after your check on the river. Even if he has a worse hand like Q9c, he's still calling you down.

[/ QUOTE ]

well if I didn't check i would have tossed out a 15 dollar bet and I figured that only the full house would call at that point. A straight would be scared of the flush and may fold.

I wanted to see what the villain would do at this point maybe even give a hand like AJ or AT a chance to bluff at it. With a small bet i was likely to re-raise all in, which i did here actually....

Out of the 150 hands I played at this table this was my only showdown hand I had. I either lost everybody on the turn or got out when I had nothing. So somebody has to have a hand to get to the river at this point against me I figure.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think only a full house calls you? I think KQ calls, obviously a lower flush calls/raises, and depending on how donkish he his, AJ or KJ might call. Heck, he might even have Q8. Not betting this river is bad in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess you do have a point with KQ. That would atleast call the river. But i think AJ/KJ folds where we can be reasonable sure he bets the river again if we check. I don't see many people that check/raises the turn and then checks behind on the river. Then again does AJ/KJ really check raises the turn?? Probably not, i guess.

I just thought that by check raising all in there is a better chance to get more money from a hand we beat that may have folded otherwise. I guess my bad on that one.