Movin on up............

[A_PLUS]

To a deeee lux apartment, in skyyy...

I am usually playing too many tables, or watching too much TV, etc. to get really specific player reads during the average tournament. I will amp things up for 100$+ events, or as the bubble approaches during smaller events. Otherwise I rely on a lot of generalized reads. Basically, I have an idea in my mind of what a typical party 40K player will do, and react accordingly. Sure I get burned sometime, but not nearly as much as you think.

Anyway, I am curious as to how often you see this at higher levels.

The weak 'probe' bet
Somewhere around the bubble. Hero opens for 3xBB from MLP, BB calls. Flop is something like
Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB leads for ~1/3ish pot, Hero raises full pot (before bet), BB folds.
-I think this works about 80% of the time at the 30$ and below MTTs I play.
-Notice I didnt mention my cards, but yes I do this with AQ and 65s, so dont get any ideas about calling me down.

[NHFunkii]

if it's a good player they'll do it with a wide variety of hands including nothing, JT, and 44, but I find that raising probe bets is still quite often a profitable play.

most people aren't good players, even at that level.

[mlagoo]

OH.

so yeah, raising probe bets is generally a good thing with these weak fields. i definitely agree with you here.

the tricky thing for me is when you get called. say you raise the weak probe, which i do fairly frequently. say i've got AK with the board AP describes above. opponent calls my raise.

turn comes a 2. opponent checks.

is your standard line to shut down here, or to continue firing? i have a really hard time with the turn play on these sorts of hands.

[AceLuby]

check back, it's a free card you just bought yourself

agree w/ nh/mlagoo..im almost always raising probe bets regardless of what i have..
mlagoo,
i continue firing around 60-70% of the time

[rockin]

[ QUOTE ]
check back, it's a free card you just bought yourself

[/ QUOTE ]

[JohnFR]

If on the turn I think I have some decent outs(2 overs, gutshot with an over, flush draw, OESD, etc.) something I think will give me the best hand on the river I check and take the free card, if I have no draws I bet 1 more time and try to take the pot, and then shut down.

NOTE: If firing on the turn commits you to the pot you may as well either shut down or push, don't do the tweener.
Cheers!
John

[DLizzle]

I'm a fan of raising weak probes, but I also like making fake weak probes with a strong hand, looking for the raise.

[SinPies]

[ QUOTE ]
i have a really hard time with the turn play on these sorts of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here. I like the bet with no draw, check with a draw line. Also depends on what the turn brings. Your opponent is often a player who just can't fold to a raise once he's bet, so you should be able to pick up the pot on the turn with a bet. There's also something to be said about taking a free card and getting to showdown as cheaply as possible if you don't hit.

[LearnedfromTV]

I basically treat it like a check from a calling station. You get slightly worse odds on your "c-bet" raise with a slightly greater chance he calls.

So I "check behind" and just call with most of the hands I would check behind anyway and I raise with most of the hands I would normally c-bet. I call slightly more than I would check behind.

Recently in a 55, I raised w/ AJ and got minbet into on a middling straight board three straight streets by QQ. I called down and hit the A on the river. Against a checker, I would have bet somewhere, but I didn't see the need to raise.