I can't fold this but I probably should

[HOWMANY]

Villain seems pretty loose passive, no actual stats. He just seems to like calling his money away. Before I made the call I convinced myself that he can have two pair here but I'm sure he had pair+bdfd.

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP calls.

River: (12 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP folds, [censored] me to tears

[bugstud]

yeah this sucks

[Buffsta8]

nah never fold real shame tho

[HOWMANY]

Oh I forgot to mention in OP but he can also have JJ, not just backdoor flushes.

[siegfriedandroy]

curious about the preflop call...

[inferno]

who folds this? LOL

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah this sucks

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero flops a set and loses to a flush or a straight. That doesnt suck, that's standard.

About preflop, I think its close between folding and calling. Am I wrong? How many think its not close and its an easy call or easy fold.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

About preflop, I think its close between folding and calling. Am I wrong? How many think its not close and its an easy call or easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold it if the SB hadn't come along. Since he did, we're getting 10-2 on a call if it doesn't get capped, and 13-3 if it does. Easily enough to call.

Guy.

[johnnyrocket]

lol, if u fold here u should quit poker, the bigges mistake in limit is folding to 1 bet when the pot is huge, u def win this pot enuff to make this call profitable, please fold and let me know ur sn

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

About preflop, I think its close between folding and calling. Am I wrong? How many think its not close and its an easy call or easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold it if the SB hadn't come along. Since he did, we're getting 10-2 on a call if it doesn't get capped, and 13-3 if it does. Easily enough to call.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still think it's close. If we assume the initial raiser is capping the top 4% of his range (approx range TT-AA,AK,AQs) The hero will end up getting an average of 4.97-1 on his call. If we make the arbitrary assumption that the hero needs 5-1 to turn a profit on this investment then it would appear that folding is still slightly better than calling.

Of course we can also make the assumption that becuz the hero is a good player he can probably turn a profit on this play getting slightly less than the magical 5-1 figure ive chosen and therefore should call preflop.

However theres another factor that I believe is significant but usually is ignored in these type of situations. The hero is going to run into that nasty set over set scenario more often than normal in this spot. I do not know how to measure the negative impact of this event but it is nevertheless an added expense that should be accounted for in some way.

Overall I am still convinced that the difference between folding and calling preflop is negligible however if there is even one player in the pot who will overplay a hand like top pair or an overpair, then I'm calling preflop and not thinking twice about it.