Late money in MLB

[ImNew]

This strategy is exactly the opposite of nickle system, which is betting the line at pinny against other books when an arb is found (only works for late money in MLB so far). Early plays are still solid for nickle system.

Late picks:
Arizona D-Backs -113
Los Angeles Dodgers -116
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +120
Minnesota Twins -1.5 +123

Early picks:
Baltimore Orioles o10.5
Texas Rangers +125
Atlanta Braves o9 -105
St Louis Cardinals +1.5 -120
Chicago White Sox u9.5

[kaboshedx]

interesting

[rush66]

In my opinion, late money is the best for MLB totals. If the side moves more than 10 points in the last 15 minutes or so its also a good play.

[B00T]

cant wait for Thremp or Imben to drop a gem in this thread

[rush66]

There is not much you can say. Late line movement mean a lot in mlb. I would not go as far as to say that Id base an entire system off of that alone. But I think twice about it for sure. In my opinion and the opinion of others line movements can tell you a lot and people make money studying only line movements. The method may not be the best but its a method. So, lay it on me, I honestly wont be offended at all.

[B00T]

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In my opinion and the opinion of others line movements can tell you a lot and people make money studying only line movements.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree with you. I am one of these people.

This is ass-backwards from what he used to do, and what works. The closing line may not be the actual true line, but it is much sharper than what he is basing this off of. I am guessing he has some poor sample size from his
current bets stating that this may work.

Has nobody ever noticed and saw that you lose at Pinnacle in the long-run when betting games based off of Pinnacle steam? Any scalper in the world for example. I've seen and profited off hundreds of thousands of dollars lost based off this same criteria at Pinnacle. The steam in proximity to gametime may be exploitable adversely in very rare circumstances, but with 4 games fitting the criteria day 1, surely is proof that any real thought is not going into this.

What shocks me is how this is an admission of a reversal of the only thing he seems to of posted (which is common sense and preached here forever) that has worked for him. Look at other theorys that lasted 2 hrs such as betting anything O 8.5 and U 9.5 totals blindly.

[rush66]

[ QUOTE ]

What shocks me is how this is an admission of a reversal of the only thing he seems to of posted (which is common sense and preached here forever) that has worked for him. Look at other theorys that lasted 2 hrs such as betting anything O 8.5 and U 9.5 totals blindly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, ok this is a good point. Maybe hes just trying to find his niche?? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kaboshedx]

This is what I believe to be his thinking behind the modified nickle syetem (whether this thinking be profitable or not I don;t know) - Square money comes in late, right before gametime. Therefore if you bet the Pinny side of the arb right before gametime you have an edge due to squares moving the line off of what it should truely be.

Here's where my problem is - isn't the Nickle system based upon the fact that Pinny's line is the ultimate "true" line? This modification throws this idea out the window and says that Pinny is not adjusting its lines quick enough in response to late action.

If this is actually his thinking I am skeptical but at the same time understand why he is trying it out. I've been on a nickels system of my own for the past couple months and recorded a whopping ROI of 5%. And without any numbers whatsoever to back this up I would guess that the late action bets on the Square sites dragged down my ROI...

[Thremp]

This idea is uniquely retarded.

[TheRover]

OP,

for your first challenge: Define "late".