Bodog Next Year NFL Player Props

[Utah]

Bodog has a slew of player props for next year. I did research on all of them and I didnt find much of value. However, other posters here may have good insight.

I placed 3 bets:

Will Willis McGahee sign a contract extension with the Buffalo Bills before the first 2007-08 Pre-season Game? N0 -130. He has done nothing to justify an extension and he has no leverage. He rushed for under 1000 yards and his average against top teams was under 3 yards a carry. He played injured but that still doesnt warrant an extension. It sounds like he may be demanding an extension in order to force a trade because a contract extension seems very unlikely.

Will Fred Taylor return to Jacksonville Jaguars for the 2007 2007-08 Regular Season? NO +200. Taylor is demanding more money given a strong session but there is no way Jacksonville will pay what he is asking with Drew playing well. There may be room for negotiation but Taylor can likely do much better elsewhere. I think there is a 50/50 he stays although several places are reporting it is likely he is leaving. Del Rio says he is confident something can be worked out but that is often what the coach say. On a side note, my man Mike Tice did a fabulous job with the Jags this year and he is likely to be promoted to Coordinator. The Vikings were stupid to get rid of him. He took a subpar team to a 9-7 record in the midst of a boat scandal, with an ownership change, and with the lowest paid coaching staff in the league.

Will a member of the Cincinnati Bengals be arrested before the first Pre-season game of the 2007-08 Regular Season? YES -150. This is very hard to analyze but I will go with the trend.

There were several other props that looking interesting and I thought there may be a few strong plays that pay 35% ROI or so. But, that isnt enough with the big time lag and given there is still some risk. I want to bet the NO that Ricky Williams will return to the Dolphins as at first glance it seems like and easy bet. But, analysis says it is too close to call.

There are also some starting QB bets that look good but I didnt bet them because of the chance of injury before the first game.

[Utah]

Added:
Will Napoleon Harris be a Minnesota Viking at the start of the 2007-08 Regular Season? NO.

I liked the NO earlier but I didnt have enough information on the situation. I just ran an errand and I was listening to sports radio and the Vikings are trying to deal him. The Vikings have invested heavily in Chadway, Leber, and EJ Henderson so Harris is expendable and they dont want to spend the money on him. There is a chance he is still with the Vikings but I think it is 25% at best.

[CieloAzor]

I thought almost half the bets offered looked like free money, but waiting 9 months is ridic.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought almost half the bets offered looked like free money, but waiting 9 months is ridic.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont mind waiting 9 months for good odds or for almost sure things. However, I dont want to hang that much out with too much risk.

What bets did you think were easy money?

[hogua]

One thing to keep in mind with these long term props is that there is a chance that the online betting world could change greatly in the next few months.

Books could close down and/or merge with other books. This could go smoothly for the player, but it could also govery badly.

There is also the port security law, with anti online gaming section, out there. I don't expect this to have teeth to it, but the DOJ may come up with some surprises.

Ever since the bill (at the time) was first voted on, I decided to stay as liquid as possible until the whole thing shakes out.

[CieloAzor]

I'd maybe do more research before hitting some of these, but just intuitively, I like Culpepper to start for the Dolphs, Simms for the Bucs, Delhomme for the Panths, Carr for the Texans, Portis outrushing Betts, Tatum outrushing Mike, Ricky Williams returning, Rucker cut, Schaub switching teams, Moss probably doing the same; I'd look at SF drafting a WR early and Cleveland using a QB not currently on their roster. I'd look at Mario Williams over 6.5 sacks, Dominick Williams returning as Hou's RB, and Plummer getting the boot (one way or the other).

I'd imagine there are other good bets, but I haven't heard anything from Rice or Sapp. With a little research, you could probably pin down whether they're likely to retire or not. I know nothing about Cleveland's GM, but just the fact that the line is there makes me think he's gone. Maybe I will look into that one since the money won't be tied up as long. Hum...

[CieloAzor]

The thing about a Bengal getting arrested from now until preseason sounded great, if those are the real terms of the bet. I thought it was a bit ambiguous.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing to keep in mind with these long term props is that there is a chance that the online betting world could change greatly in the next few months.

Books could close down and/or merge with other books. This could go smoothly for the player, but it could also govery badly.

There is also the port security law, with anti online gaming section, out there. I don't expect this to have teeth to it, but the DOJ may come up with some surprises.

Ever since the bill (at the time) was first voted on, I decided to stay as liquid as possible until the whole thing shakes out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought of that but I think I only have $500 or so laid out on this so my risk is minimal. I think the risk is bigger that solid bets would be graded "no action" versus the money never being returned.

[Utah]

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I like Culpepper to start for the Dolphs, Simms for the Bucs, Delhomme for the Panths, Carr for the Texans

[/ QUOTE ]
I think these are the likely starters with the exception of maybe Carr. However, I think that the time lag, the risk of injury, and the chance of trades/other starters makes this no action.

[ QUOTE ]
Portis outrushing Betts, Tatum outrushing Mike

[/ QUOTE ]
These are year long bets and there is always a chance of injury during the season.

[ QUOTE ]
Ricky Williams returning

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Too much risk. The dolphins want him back and it sounds like he wants to come back. He seems to have cleaned up his act. However, he didnt show great things in Canada and he may be washed up. Also, I never want to bet on an addict staying clean.

[ QUOTE ]
Plummer getting the boot (one way or the other)

[/ QUOTE ]
He is almost definitely gone but will it be a cut or a trade? They are trying to trade him now but if they dont find a team willing to trade for him they will cut him I think June 1st. Locally, the Vikings sound like they have some interest in him. There is not enough info to choose trade or cut.

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't heard anything from Rice or Sapp. With a little research, you could probably pin down whether they're likely to retire or not.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didnt find out much info on either. Rice had a terrible 2 sack season and I think he is slated to be paid $7.5 next year. It would seem easy that he is gone but I read several places that the Bucs think it is a priority to keep him. Too much is unknown.

[ QUOTE ]
I know nothing about Cleveland's GM, but just the fact that the line is there makes me think he's gone.

[/ QUOTE ]
He is on the hotseat but he was on a bigger hotseat last year when his firing was imminent. Yet, he survived. I read several places that the Brown's troubles were not his doing completely and that the team had a lot of bad breaks. I think he is likely gone but I am not confident enough to bet it.

[wheatrich]

Will Randy Moss play for the Oakland Raiders in week 1 of the 2007-08 Regular Season?

Player must play the team's first game of the 2007-08 NFL regular season for wagers to have action. No Parlays. Max $100

Who likes a freeroll? (I think Moss has no shot at being there next year though esp under his current salary)
[and I don't exactly trust bodog's wording here...]