big fold with third nuts

jj12 · #1 05-18-2007, 10:29 AM

Villain is 24/7/0.7 over 200 hands. No reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$3/$6 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $542.00
BB: $367.60
UTG: $1,679.25
Hero (CO): $609.45
BTN: $1,040.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21.00, BTN calls $21.00, SB folds, BB calls $15.00

Flop: ($66) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB bets $18.00, Hero calls $18.00, BTN calls $18.00

Turn: ($120) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB bets $36.00, Hero calls $36.00, BTN calls $36.00

River: ($228) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $170.00, BTN raises to $700.00, BB folds, Hero folds

Black winter day · #2 05-18-2007, 10:44 AM

Busted diamonds.
No way he bets that little with a made straight on the turn after you both called the flop.
J7 is very very unlikely and he can't have Jd7d.
Really looks to me like a diamond draw that tryed to set low price on the turn and missed.And your straight is pretty concealed since he only have to worry about JQ as well and you'd raise at some point.
The only hand that beats you and he might it play this way is JdQd.

I'd call.

FBP · #3 05-18-2007, 10:45 AM

Wtf? I instacall this, busted diamond sooo much.

ImsaKidd · #4 05-18-2007, 10:45 AM

Dude, wtf? He cant really have QJ because this is not a flop to slowplay with a straight. Callcalcalclaclalclacla

jj12 · #5 05-18-2007, 10:47 AM

He is so passive though. I might've had him at 0.5 AF at the time.

jj12 · #6 05-18-2007, 10:49 AM

I just don't think an opponent with super low aggression factor is bluffing in a multiway pot often enough.

Phone Booth · #7 05-18-2007, 10:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't think an opponent with super low aggression factor is bluffing in a multiway pot often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he can slowplay a straight on that flop, why can't he bet a set for value here? Your bet's not that strong here and your hand is not obvious at all. What's the bet to you, 350-ish?

FBP · #8 05-18-2007, 11:00 AM

Ok i misread hand, thought it was a river C/R from the BB who donked all the way.

But still, the button was in pos in this super drawy board and only just called two supersmall bet, so this can't be QJ in my book.
This could very well but J7 however, it's a double belly which can make sense postflop, and preflop i can imagine a 24/7 calling this on the button.
So this is closer than i first thought, but still a pretty easy call, expect to see some random crap often enough to make up for it.

Hand range is like:

J7, rest of the world

Pretty hard to believe J7> rest of the world.

Black winter day · #9 05-18-2007, 11:02 AM

I actually misread the hand as well and thought this is BB check-raising.
This is closer now, but i still call for all the reasons mentioned above.

Trivial · #10 05-18-2007, 11:06 AM

I don't think this is ever a bluff. His ultra low aggression factor and donk-ish stats do suggest that JQ can't be factored out here. The only question is whether he would also play a set in this manner (88 or 99 is perhaps plausible), but I think you're usually beaten here. Then again we're getting reasonable odds to call... so if seeing the nuts won't induce you to break your mouse or something I guess we can throw the chips in.