#1
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NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
UTG is Raylapsley - a solid regular who wins.
Villain 2 is 31/5/1.5 after only 40 hands. I know nothing about him so he's as good as unknown. I expect ray would fold AA to the hand action if I push, especially since he can't have Ac for any form of back-up. Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter MP1: $200 MP2: $231.05 CO: $200.65 BTN: $279 Hero (SB): $198 BB: $242.05 UTG: $336.35 UTG+1: $83 UTG+2: $212.85 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) <font color="red">UTG raises to $7</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, BB folds Flop: ($23) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $23</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $191 and is All-In</font>, MP2 calls $141 Turn: ($428) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) River: ($428) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In) Results: $428 Pot |
#2
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
I think it's a good push, but I am not pushing to get AA or KK to fold. I think pushing is good, because against their respected ranges you can't be too far behind; not to mention decent fold equity.
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#3
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a good push, but I am not pushing to get AA or KK to fold. I think pushing is good, because against their respected ranges you can't be too far behind; not to mention decent fold equity. [/ QUOTE ] +1 I think his range is far wider than AA, KK here, don't you think? |
#4
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
Yes Ray's range is much wider and I'm not trying to get him to fold AA-KK. I'm simply giving you additional information by telling you that I'm sure he WILL fold it if I push. Thus, I don't need to worry about Ray really unless he flopped a set cause he's always folding if I push in this spot.
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#5
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
Ray pwns me because he sees so many flops in raised pots and waits for me to make an error. He opens quite a number of hands, but I don't have his UTG range pegged (only 20k sample). I like what you did, but as far as a +EV expectation here... I doubt it because I only foresee MP2 showing up with a set or QxQc/KK/AA. Although again I like what you did, probably not +ev. Someone could run some pokerstove and carve it out for us nicely. Fold equity? Meh... really close.
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#6
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
Ok I did a quick stove exercise. I'm going to assume Ray as dead in this hand. All the hands he'd ever call with are in the range I've given to Villain 2 so they are accounted for anyway. If they both call then it only improves my situation.
With this range I'm assuming Villain 2 has fairly liberal calling tendencies. (JJ and 1010 for example) The range is as follows: 99+,33-22,5c4c,32s,32o When I push it's for $191 and if called the final pot will yeild 41.5% equity for me. Against that range my hand equity is 42.2% thus I believe it's around a break even play even with no fold equity considered and I think it's reasonable to conclude I will get two folds here some of the time. I think I've answered my own question - this is a no-brainer push. |
#7
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
i don't think it is, but im not sure.
Nevertheless, 3betting preflop and leading flop as played are much better. |
#8
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
Ray is tricky post-flop, I'm usually not 3-betting his UTG raising range OOP with AK.
Could you explain why you think pushing is -EV in light of the range above? I've still got 39% equity if V2 doesn't call with 1010-JJ. In fact, against a range of QQ+,33-22,93s-92s,5c4c,32s,93o-92o,32o, which includes some frankly stupid two-pair combo's and covers ALL hands that beat or dominate me I'm still 37.5%. I'm confident I make up the rest from fold equity even against this, the most extreme and IMHO unlikely calling range. |
#9
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
[ QUOTE ]
Ray is tricky post-flop, I'm usually not 3-betting his UTG raising range OOP with AK. Could you explain why you think pushing is -EV in light of the range above? I've still got 39% equity if V2 doesn't call with 1010-JJ. In fact, against a range of QQ+,33-22,93s-92s,5c4c,32s,93o-92o,32o, which includes some frankly stupid two-pair combo's and covers ALL hands that beat or dominate me I'm still 37.5%. I'm confident I make up the rest from fold equity even against this, the most extreme and IMHO unlikely calling range. [/ QUOTE ] Im hearing some contradiciton here. How is Ray such a tricky player, when your 100% confident he will lay down Aces here? That confidence suggests to me that he plays his hands straight, and is easy to read. Not very tricky. And I think your first range was a bit loose. Second range is better, but doesnt those crazy 2 pair combos increase your equity in that second range? |
#10
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Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
[ QUOTE ]
but doesnt those crazy 2 pair combos increase your equity in that second range? [/ QUOTE ] Ahh, nope. playing with Pokerstove, and it decreases equity. Weird, i thought a tighter range of QQ+, sets and the srtagith flush draw would yield you less equity, not more. Board: 9c 3c 2s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.640% 41.57% 00.07% 7819 13.50 { AcKc } Hand 1: 58.360% 58.29% 00.07% 10964 13.50 { QQ+, 33-22, 5c4c } |
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