That thing they do...where they jam the flop with a set

[Pokerdemic]

Hi All,


I am a relative beginner and recently switched from micro SNGs to NLHE 25 cash games. I have been surprised by the number of times I have seen players hit a set and insta-push the flop when a two flush on the board shows up; I have seen it when they were in position and out of position, and I had to have seen in a few times just in the last week.

So this play obviously "protects" the hand by killing the pot odds for the flush draw. But the flush draw is only 2-1 to come in anyway....assuming the villian has one to begin with. Doesn't jamming the flop in this situation miss value bets on the river and turn? and all those times a donk will shove a busted draw as a bluff on the river?

So why do people do this? Is there ever a good situation to do this in? Or at this level can you shove the flop and count on a donk with a flush draw to call enough times to make it profitable? Anyone else seen this a bunch?

[Pokerdemic]

my bad, the flush draw is only 3-1 to come in. right?

[mmbossman]

[ QUOTE ]
my bad, the flush draw is only 3-1 to come in. right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Odds the flush will come on the turn: 1 to 4.22
Odds the flush will come on the river (blank on the turn): 1 to 4.11

Odds the flush will come flop to river: 1 to 1.86

So if you push 20 bucks into a $100 pot, you'll likely get called every time by a flush draw since it would be a +EV move for them each time. If the situation is reversed ($100 into a $20 pot), the odds won't be good enough for the flush draw to call to have it be a +EV (100 into a 120 pot).

At least that's what my beginner math says. Anyone care to correct me?

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]
So why do people do this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they're terrible.

I don't know if you're aware of this, but there are a lot of people who play poker that have no idea what they're doing...

Yeah, surprising, I know..

[ QUOTE ]
Is there ever a good situation to do this in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, if the other guy is a complete idiot who'll call with a worse hand.

Otherwise, no.

[Fermion5]

aren't the odds less for a flush winning less than 33% since the heart can't pair the board?

[Nsight7]

I have used the jam move but the circumstances are pretty specific, i.e. a board with heavy straight/flush draws plus a loose raiser coming in for a raise before me when a lot of chips are already in the middle. However, it is rare that I do it. Usually I just give them a bad price pure and simple and watch myself if the out I suspect they own hits.