#1
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tuesday mlb plays
Monday we were 0-1 for -1.0 units.
Today 2 plays in mlb St Louis +127 Chicago-N: (R) ZAMBRANO, C St Louis: (R) WELLS, K Texas under 11.5 -110 Seattle: (L) FEIERABEND, R Texas: (L) RHEINECKER, J Good Luck RickJ Record to date: MLB(07 Season) Sides: 49-60 +7.28 O/U: 15-18-1 -3.55 mlb(06 season,started end of season) Sides: 17- 14 +6.83 o/u 3-8-1 -5.09 WNBA Sides: 3-1 +1.95 Total: 0-1 -1.05 ncaafb (06-07 completed) Sides 36-27-2 +9.14 o/u 11-12 -1.63 nfl(06-07 completed) Sides 26-10-1 +15.56 o/u 7-4 +2.83 nhl sides 35-36 +6.66 total 4-5 -1.10 Nba Side 78-77 -2.75 o/u 31-25 +4.98 Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81% Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0% Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11% Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14% Feb: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77% Mar: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37% April: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06% May: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43% JUne: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87% July: 33 bets -6.10 units -18.48% Total 619 Bets + 37.89units +6.12% |
#2
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
I'm with you on the Cardinals at 10c better, and I've been eying the two games in Texas with no play yet. Tough loss last night. Good luck.
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#3
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up?
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#4
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
[ QUOTE ]
not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up? [/ QUOTE ] I thought this was the best part. I'm not on stl today but I can see why riccja is, I think it's a solid play. |
#5
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
[ QUOTE ]
not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up? [/ QUOTE ] I think you accidentally backed into good reasoning for betting STL. |
#6
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
explain?
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#7
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
[ QUOTE ]
explain? [/ QUOTE ] Don't hold your breath, people in this forum don't explain too much. If that's all the reasoning employed ny New001 (public perception and ESPN data, it's a pretty poor one to explain why a +130 line has value. Exactly where the value starts when ESPN release some data, at +110? +120? +140? |
#8
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
[ QUOTE ]
The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months [/ QUOTE ] You realize that a team losing three in a row, even if they only have a 30% change to win each game is only 34.3%. Taking any three games into isolation, like you said (and I don't doubt) ESPN said. But, what are the chances a team loses 3 in a row if they have already lost 2? If you flip a coin, what are the chances heads doesn't come up at least 1 out of 3 tries: 12.5%. But what are the chances it comes up heads after the first two weren't heads: 50%. craig |
#9
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] explain? [/ QUOTE ] Don't hold your breath, people in this forum don't explain too much. If that's all the reasoning employed ny New001 (public perception and ESPN data, it's a pretty poor one to explain why a +130 line has value. Exactly where the value starts when ESPN release some data, at +110? +120? +140? [/ QUOTE ] It's not what I used when making the bet. I calculated the line to be such that +137 had value. ESPN touting the Cubs, the Cubs being a big public team, the Cardinals being godawful, Kip Wells being godawful, all of those contribute to the line being set at +137. Hope that's explained well enough. |
#10
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Re: tuesday mlb plays
they haven't lost 3 in a row in 2 months? This is completely irrelevant. We're talking about independent games here. Kip Wells throws one good game in forever and +127's +EV? I doubt it. (at least Stl isn't a horrible squad) If you're just betting trying to fade the public or whatever I don't like it. I think I'd need around +150 on this one but I'm not on it either way so gl.
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