Housenuts' NHL System

[housenuts]

I did this last year but stopped posting because it was too
time consuming. It seems like there are more NHL fans this year so it could make it more interesting and provide better discussion than last year.

I only started it again 2 days ago after reading a couple threads (1369, and 1C5 -- what's with all these numbers?). There were no plays for it last night.

The system involves betting on any team that is +120 or more to score first. I feel the NHL is a coinflip these days and the +odds given to any team can make for +ev. I'm will be looking into +105 bets and up over the next little while but won't be betting them quite yet.

All bets 1 unit unless otherwise stated.

YTD: 2-0
Units: <font color="green">+2.70</font>

4 Jan 07 plays
--------------
01/04/07 (21:05 ET)
Panthers +150
Flames

I bet 2 units on this game because +150 sounded lovely. Also Calgary is starting their backup. I feel like betting more.

01/04/07 (19:35 ET)
Islanders +130
Devils

01/04/07 (19:05 ET)
Flyers +140
Rangers


01/04/07 (19:05 ET)
Coyotes +130
Hurricanes


EDIT:

On llabb's suggestion I will include the +105's and up but I won't be betting them. Only one tonight is
Lightning +110
Wild

[llabb]

Nice system. Will you be tracking the +105 to +120 bets separately, since you're not betting them yet but want to follow their progress? Looks like Tampa Bay Lightning are +110 tonight.

[housenuts]

i was just going to track them on my own. i guess i could include them in my thread as well. i'll do that now.

[136913691369]

IMO w/o doing any analysis, I would stay away from the +110 and under bets because although it is true that it is basically a coin flip who will score first, a matchup like buffalo vs. new jersey would defanintly be -EV if you took +110 and under so to be safe, if you're not gonna do any capping I would stick to +120 or better.

BTW im following. I got all those bets for the max at bodog

[housenuts]

god dammit. i made a big post with my other plays but my comp crashed. i'll quickly summarize

Coyotes
Hurricanes -190

this was longer before but i don't feel like writing it all. basically coyotes suck, they lost comrie who was getting almost a point per game, and the canes are starting to look better. coyotes also suck on the road

flyers +210
rangers

flyers have been good since esche is back. he's been stellar, they've won 3 in a row on the road. rangers have sucked the last 10, and they also are only 1 game over .500 at MSG. can't remember what else i wrote.

anyways as it stands now those are my two other nhl plays of the day.

[1C5]

Took 2U on FLA to score 1st at +150 also.

thx

[housenuts]

[ QUOTE ]


YTD: 3-3
Units: 0.0

4 Jan 07 plays
--------------
<font color="red">
Panthers +150
Flames </font>

I bet 2 units on this game because +150 sounded lovely. Also Calgary is starting their backup. I feel like betting more.

<font color="red">
Islanders +130
Devils </font>

<font color="red">
Flyers +140
Rangers </font>


<font color="green">
Coyotes +130
Hurricanes </font>


105+ tracking only

1-0
+1.10

<font color="green">
Lightning +110
Wild </font>

[housenuts]

YTD: 3-3
Units: EVEN

Blue Jackets +160
Ducks

Penguins +140
Sabres

Coyotes +130
Thrashers


Tracking only
Lightning are again +110 vs. Avalanche tonight