mid pair faces turn raise

sharpie · #1 04-27-2006, 04:47 AM

Villain is 70/0/0.8 over ~65 hands. He's pulled some bluff bets, usually donks and when shown weakness but I haven't seen him bluff raise. Did bet a gutshot all the way unimproved heads up. Also he limped JJ PF and check/called all the way on a QQ9 flop.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, Button calls.

Turn: (2.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero folds

Pepsquad · #2 04-27-2006, 05:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 70/0/0.8 over ~65 hands. He's pulled some bluff bets, usually donks and when shown weakness but I haven't seen him bluff raise. Did bet a gutshot all the way unimproved heads up. Also he limped JJ PF and check/called all the way on a QQ9 flop.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (3 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, Button calls.

Turn: (2.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero folds

[/ QUOTE ]

Bad, bad fold. Your flop bet represents the K. When the turn brings a 2nd K it invites any villain with 1/2 an imagination to cry "BS!" and come over the top with aces, smaller pocket-pairs, 2-hearts. This guy looks like one of those standard "opposite" guys. Limps in with JJ and bets all the way with a gutshot. In this particular hand, "mr. opposite" is raising. In fact, I'm gonna get flamed for this but given your read, I'm 3-betting and calling down. This is a pure BS bluff or semi-bluff a solid % of the time.

F Paulsson · #3 04-27-2006, 05:54 AM

Not entirely sure I'd 3-bet here - I might be too big of a wuss - but I would definitely go to a showdown. I'd expect a T, a 5, a PP, a flush draw or a naked ace here a large portion of the time, and definitely more than the 30% of the time you need to make the calldown show profit.

Edit: 3-betting is really dependent on his tendency to call down with weak hands vs. his tendency to make desperate bluffs, neither of which we know much about after only 70 hands, I think.

Pros to 3-betting: We kick his flushdraws around a lot, and some of the time we get paid an extra bet by his weaker tens and his pocket pairs.

Cons to 3-betting: We may be shutting down a guy who will bet with weaker hands on the river, and we're not getting the benefit of making better hands than ours fold (no way he's folding JT - or?).

Another possible line is to call, and bet the river.

Feels like all three are close. But a fold is not on the chart.

True · #4 04-27-2006, 06:05 AM

getting 6:2 on a calldown, I think this is a fine fold.

True

slamhound · #5 04-27-2006, 06:32 AM

Folding is fine. I think one of my leaks is spewing in spots like this.

HajiShirazu · #6 04-27-2006, 07:36 AM

I always call these down and they always have it, so that would say you should fold, but then again, who just calls on the flop with a king?

Bubbles · #7 04-27-2006, 08:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I always call these down and they always have it

[/ QUOTE ]
Me too. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

This is a small ass pot too. I definitely spew in situations like these, but I'm not so sure about this one. Your hand may very well be good. Interesting hand!

jrz1972 · #8 04-27-2006, 08:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but then again, who just calls on the flop with a king?

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The kind of guy who accumulates a 70/0/0.8 stat line.

MacGuyV · #9 04-27-2006, 08:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bad, bad fold. Your flop bet represents the K. When the turn brings a 2nd K it invites any villain with 1/2 an imagination to cry "BS!" and come over the top with aces, smaller pocket-pairs, 2-hearts. This guy looks like one of those standard "opposite" guys. Limps in with JJ and bets all the way with a gutshot. In this particular hand, "mr. opposite" is raising. In fact, I'm gonna get flamed for this but given your read, I'm 3-betting and calling down. This is a pure BS bluff or semi-bluff a solid % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. First of all villian doesn't sound very imaginative at all. Secondly unless hero has been consistently betting into multiple players on ragged rainbow boards with nothing, I don't think the turn card invites a bluff raise at all. 3betting is terrible.

Ineedaride2 · #10 04-27-2006, 08:54 AM

I'll be honest. I don't think we're ever losing money long term folding in these situations.

I call these down a lot versus loose players, and I catch it in the rear way too much for this to be profitable.

If it happened two or three times, I'd call down for table image, but that's probably paranoia as I don't think table image means jack squat against most players.