I don't think you have a set --> I go all in

Fly · #1 04-20-2006, 06:48 PM

PartyPoker 200NL (FR)

Background:

Previous hand, 1 limper, hero opens for 9 in the CO w/ A9s, button minraises and hero calls. Hero wins a decent pot when the board comes 993 (button had AA). Other then that I got caught bluffing when I bet pot on a river which paired the board and was called by top pair (I had a missed straight draw). This was a while before the hand in question so I'm not sure if villain saw this hand or not, I think not but its possible. This is the first I've seen of villain which leads me to believe he is relatively new to the table.

Hand: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Relevant Stacks: 200

Pre-flop:
EP limps, Hero (MP3) bets 9, Villain (SB) minraises to 16, hero says "WTF, stop minraising me", hero calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Pot(34)
Villain bets 50, Hero goes all in.

My read is that he has a hand like KK, QQ, or JJ he is betting so much that he can fold confidently if he is played back at. AK is possible but I think it's much less likely than a big pair. I don't think he has a set. If I'm behind, I'm 1/3 vs AK and about 1/5 vs a set.

Who likes?

djoyce003 · #2 04-20-2006, 06:58 PM

your read that he has KK or QQ is simply wishful thinking that he has a hand that might fold here. It's not likely since you have KQ. AK/AQ/JJ are all much more likely than KK or QQ...incidentally he's not folding AK ever here...probably not AQ if he's loose enough to reraise with it. In short, I don't like it.

Fly · #3 04-20-2006, 08:35 PM

bump

Sam2459953 · #4 04-20-2006, 08:53 PM

If you are sure enough that he firing on the flop with KK QQ, this is a good raise. however, this has to be an overwhelming majority of the time 70-80% just to break even. I can see a fold, as implied odds don't favor you, a redraw with any set and a very obvious drawout if you do catch a spade.

thedustbustr · #5 04-20-2006, 08:56 PM

yo fly,
this is very very standard for me. i think this play is very often a pocket pair which got pissed that an ace flopped. its definitely NOT top set, which is the only thing you don't have equity against.

@dejoyce,
who plays AK or AQ like this? even if they have it, which is unlikely imo, you aren't a very big dog at all.

actually thinking this through, pushing is "ABC standard", but smooth calling and making him bluff again might get you a lot more scrilla when he folds.

Fly · #6 04-20-2006, 09:21 PM

thedustbustr,

I agree that this is a pair the great majority of the time. So, do you ever make this play w/ air, for example 55? I think that the following hand follows from the same idea, do you like this as well?

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...page=&vc=1

thedustbustr · #7 04-20-2006, 10:04 PM

I distinctly remember a hand where I checkraised AI when I smooth called a 3bet pf with AA. I checked a Q high flop with a FD, he bet, I pushed, he called... with JJ. so it is not completely infeasable that you will get called. thus, I much prefer having something to fall back on when I get called.

air river bluffs are somewhat different - i like your other bluff, just because it's really obvious that his hand sucked, and he really doesn't want to call anything else. here, we don't have all that info, so I am not very likely to move in with an underpair here, though I might call with KK (if I do so, I'm willing to put my stack in with KK here which is pretty rare).