Good fold? And a (LC) question on odds.

[jwlam]

Reads: general LPP play expected from Party 1/2, nothing too wacky.
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

K or 8 beat me and I could easily see him having a K raising preflop. Hard to lay down for one more, but I felt like it was right move.

Here's the odds question: Am I right when I say if I'm getting 4:1 pot odds to call, I have to win at least 20% of the time for call to be correct? I was always confused about that. So, for instance, here, I'm getting 9.75:1 to call river bet, which means i have to win roughly 10% of the time? Is that right?

Thanks in advance, guys!

edit: readablity...

[martinimagic]

*Grunch*

Tough to know if the PF decision is good without any specific reads. If it is really LPP then the call is fine.

Good lead on the flop. Appears we are ahead here.

Seems like leading on the turn is right. MP3 raise is slowing me down. What does he have? TT and AK seem like raising hands PF for a passive player. The pot is small, time to let it go, I am not calling the raise. Fold it. I have definitely called more than my share of these.

Look forward to discussion on calculating odds for calling on the river.

[CoachDirty]

Would a clarkmeister work here? B/f or is that just spewing?

[Cueballmania]

No, I would feel safe check/folding here. All you really have is 1 pair, which is below the median hand of two pair when HU.

[The Vibesman]

River fold's probably good. Even if he was doing this turn play w/ KQ his str8 hit on the river. You'd basically have to hope he would pull this w/ AJ/AT to call.

You are correct on your odds question.

Two things: I like a preflop reraise here. When you just call you're giving UTG+2, a blind poster, odds to call with almost any two at 5-1 and give yourself an extra player to play against. You're ahead of enough hands in a standard player's raising range when opening from MP2 to think of it pretty much as a value raise as well.

If I 3bet preflop and am just called I will lead this flop. If it's capped, or if I don't 3bet and just call as you did, I think a checkraise on the flop is almost mandatory. You've hit top pair top kicker, and the preflop raiser is in such a position where if he bets the flop when checked to (and this will happen 98% of the time on this flop) you will be able to checkraise him and face UTG+2 with two cold.

Edit; On the bet/fold, you've got to wonder what he's raised the turn with. Say he raises preflop w. AA-88, aces w/ kickers down to 8s, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, and JT. You are behind every one of these hands except for the one you're tied with and A9/AT/AJ, and would he raise the turn w/ A9/AJ/AT?

[TripleH68]

I am a pretty tight player and I strongly consider 3-betting preflop.
MP3 isolation raising a poster, I think we look pretty good here with AQo.

If you just smooth call like you did, I would go for a check-raise on the flop.

If you want a showdown here I would consider bet/folding the river.