TPWK, scary board, raised by lag

[chopchoi]

Reads: MP2 plays very laggy PF. I've seen him raise lots of pots from all positions. I once saw him show-down QJo after opening for a raise UTG+1.I was multi-tabling, so I didn't get a good look at his post-flop play.

2/4 limit. Players post in CO and MP3. I'm MP1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It folds to me. I raise. MP2 and BB call.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB checks, I bet, both call.

Turn, Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB checks, I bet, MP2 raises, BB folds. Pot is 8.5 big bets. Fold or call down?

[Harv72b]

Given what info you do have on the villain, I'm much more worried about the nut straight than I am about two pair or a better ace. I don't think you call down and win this pot often enough to justify the odds you're getting. Even when you don't lose, you're often going to end up chopping it. Not having a firmer read on the villain, I think I can find a fold here.

EDIT: I also really don't like your openraise here with A4s. It's normally too early in the order to even play the hand, let alone raise with it, but with two posters in the hand you could probably get away with openlimping. But with those posters, if you raise you're going to be playing a weak ace out of position almost every time.

[Bob T.]

If he has AK, AQ, or Ax and x is larger than your four, you are drawing dead. Against a set, you are drawing dead. You are also drawing dead against JT.

If he only has a better ace than you have, you are drawin to three outs to a win, and possibly several outs to a chop. Against KQ, you have 8 outs, and can call.


Finally, you raised preflop, and the board is AKQx, and he raised, which probably means that he fully expects you to call. What do you think he thinks you have? That flop is a good one for the preflop raiser, and he is raising your turn bet. In that situation, he probably has a pretty good hand, and you have less than advertised.

When you add it all up, it seems like you don't have many ways to win, and you have a lot of ways where you are putting money into a hopeless situation. I think you can fold here, and not worry about losing too much.

I also think that you need to be able to remember what the x was in this situation. Was it bigger or smaller than your kicker? It probably doesn't make a difference in your play here, but it might on other hands, and you should be thinking about that, and if you thought about it, you would probably be able to remember it. When you can't remember that third card, it also makes it more likely that the flop was twotone, with the small card being a spade, which makes it more likely that the lag called with two suited cards, and is now semibluff raising on the turn, which means that I am probably going to call down, unless a spade appears on the river. ( I would either be behind a spade draw, or a better hand, in that case).

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AK, AQ, or Ax and x is larger than your four, you are drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]
Against Ax Hero has eight to a zillion outs. But in all other aspects I like your reasoning.

Also I would like to say that this preflop raise is pretty horrible. If the table is passive I could see limping, but I never raise here.

[SMACK BOOTY]

Villan either has 2 pair or str8. Fold son....
PS...To those who didn't like the raise, you prefer hero just call from MP1 when its folded to him with this hand? To me, this is a raise or fold situation, not a call situation. With 2 posters behind hero, I like the raise.

[Warren Harding]

Raise or fold situation comes only when you want to play shorthanded or not at all. I'd prefer to raise this, but somehow if my raise button wasn't working, I'd limp too. Axs versus four blinds is profitable, so no folding.

EDIT: Wow, some of you hate this and I'm surprised. If the steal succeeds 1/3.5, it's profitable; if not, you'll have the best hand on the flop or a strong draw often enough to make up the difference. Most hands suck and should fold PF rather than cold calling or defending the post; the rest will usually miss the flop.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, some of you hate this and I'm surprised. If the steal succeeds 1/3.5, it's profitable; if not, you'll have the best hand on the flop or a strong draw often enough to make up the difference. Most hands suck and should fold PF rather than cold calling or defending the post; the rest will usually miss the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising from MP1 is not a steal--it's a raise. And with two posters + the blinds, you are going to take this down preflop pretty much never, and with a flop bet only slightly more often. I would much rather openlimp this hand and take it from there, rather than getting a big pot going while trying to play a weak suited ace from out of position.

This not even taking into account how many times you get 3-bet.