SLV - Silver iShares starts trading

[Sniper]

The Silver ETF started trading today under the symbol - SLV

[Brainwalter]

I wonder if it would be good to short SLV and buy GLD today. Isn't the historical gold-silver ratio more like 60 than today's 50?

[Mr. Now]

Mr. Now wonders when the entire precious metals complex is going to stop the parabolic tendencies, and take a much-needed breather.

It certainly does not look like it's going to happen anytime soon, with gold hitting $655+ intraday today.

If a make-nice deal with Iran ensues, it's easy to imagine silver and gold dropping in a huge way.

If Iran refuses to be bullied by the USA, we might see some frightening headlines and a corresponding scary straight-up gold price.

I notice that Iran has a proud heritage of empire spanning centuries, and is unlikely to cowtow to the USA. It's hard to see the Iran-USA situation ending well.

But if a solution (however temporary) does materialize, I wonder how far metals can drop.

[AvivaSimplex]

Oil might respond to a deal with Iran like you're talking about. Precious metals are more driven by 1) concern about inflation, hyperinflation, the combined trade and budget deficits, 2) momentum players flooding a relatively small sector with a lot of funds, and 3) in the case of silver, supply/demand imbalances over the past decade.

[Groty]

After a respite in 2005, the dollar has resumed its slide against most major currencies. A falling dollar could be signalling monetary conditions are too loose. I personally think "one and done" by Uncle Ben at the May FOMC meeting will be a disaster for the dollar (unless he does something unthinkable like raise rates 50-75 basis points at the May meeting).

Like you, it's hard for me to see a diplomatic solution to the Iran mess. So factoring that in with the falling dollar and its really no surprise gold continues to go up.