$225 Turbo AK on AxxQx flop, possible to fold riv?

[AlphaWice]

PokerStars Game #4474044365: Tournament #22262569, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/03/31 - 11:33:03 (ET)
Table '22262569 1' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: labelleza (1640 in chips)
Seat 2: spoonieluv40 (1480 in chips)
Seat 3: JohnnyBax (1420 in chips)
Seat 4: mansuelo (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: 8ivyleague8 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: sido123 (1480 in chips)
Seat 7: AlphaWice (1480 in chips)
Seat 8: Crosspointe1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: king013 (1500 in chips)
JohnnyBax: posts small blind 10
mansuelo: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AlphaWice [Kh As]
8ivyleague8: folds
sido123: folds
AlphaWice: raises 60 to 80
Crosspointe1: folds
king013: folds
labelleza: calls 80
spoonieluv40: folds
JohnnyBax: folds
mansuelo: folds
*** FLOP *** [2d 6c Ac]
AlphaWice: bets 100
labelleza: calls 100
*** TURN *** [2d 6c Ac] [Qh]
AlphaWice: checks
labelleza: checks
*** RIVER *** [2d 6c Ac Qh] [5d]
AlphaWice: bets 100
labelleza: raises 400 to 500
AlphaWice uses time bank, then calls.

[AlphaWice]

I was thinking of folding. I only beat a pure bluff. However, there is a good probability this is a bluff.

[Frinkenstein]

I'm not sure about the river, but I'd surely have bet the turn.

[AlphaWice]

I am not scared to give a free card. Here I am either way ahead or way behind.

[Todd]

I think calling the river is pretty much automatic. If you were way behind on the turn, i expect villian would have bet his AQ or unlikely A2 or A6. If he made a set or A5 on the river, pay the man.

I would have bet the turn, since I am hoping to keep charging a weaker ace to try and hit his kicker.

[schwza]

i don't know, it's very tough to put villain on a hand. nothing really plays this way very often, bluff or not.

if you think he's bluffing, what could he have? this would be a very bizarre line to float the flop with air only to check behind on the turn and bluff raise the river. the only missed draw is the flush draw, and since the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is on the board, that's a lot less likely. also, a lot of villains will just call the river if they have the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so we're looking at a pretty small range of hands, all of which are loose calls preflop.

the other possibility is that villain has some kind of made hand that we're ahead of. he might have sensed weakness with 77 or something, for example. he also might be a donk and think that raising AJ for value is a smart idea.

on the other side, what beats us? 22 and 66 are certainly possibilities. i'm not sure why exactly, but i think those hands are more likely to bet the turn than AQ is. it's like a lot of villains can only slowplay one street, and AQ just got there, so it can slowplay its one street on the turn (not really sure if that's a real phenomenon or if i just made it up). regardless, AQ/22/66 are all pretty consistent. AK is also very possible.

cEV-wise, you only have to scoop 28%. against an unknown i think you have to pay it off. if villain is known and decent/straight-forward, i think you could find a fold.

incidentally, what was your plan if you got bet into on the turn for 2/3 pot? check/call and block river?

[AlphaWice]

Results: he has AQ.

Plan on turn was to checkcall twice, so he missed a bet LOL

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not scared to give a free card. Here I am either way ahead or way behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is the correct situation for WA/WB. You are missing a lot of value by checking this turn.

[AlphaWice]

Why? Do you guys really think he has stuff like AT here?

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Do you guys really think he has stuff like AT here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't know the opponent, he might though.

What do you put him on that checked behind the turn, but will call 100 on the river? Don't you think it would be better to let him bluff a missed draw?