NL1000... Reasonable Doubt

bigt439 · #1 03-29-2006, 05:25 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (5 handed) converter

BB ($468.37)
UTG ($1113)
MP ($1007.50)
Hero ($2428.87)
SB ($990)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $35, MP calls $35, Hero calls $35, SB calls $30, BB calls $25.

Flop: ($175) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $80, MP folds, Hero calls $80, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($335) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $240, UTG calls $240.

River: ($815) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2073.87 (All-In)

Villain had relatively TAG stats, probs a break-even player, but he just sat down and I haven't played with him that much.

Comments on all streets appreciated.

This hand bothered me a bit. The problem is that to a decent hand reader I'm not really representing anything because there aren't many hands I call that flop with that are very strong by the river. However, that assumes that my opponent is a good hand reader and knows that I am not a terrible slowplayer.

Given the weakish flop bet, and the turn and river checks I don't think that the villain is much better than KQish, but is it fine to make a move absent of too much of a read and a convincing hand to represent. Essentially are enough opponents bad enough to not know what's going on?

Inyaface · #2 03-29-2006, 05:34 PM

I kind of like it.
If the player is a breakeven TAG chances are hes not calling with much on the river or trying to put you on a narrow range. It seems like he has a weakish hand and is trying to get to showdown cheaply.
The problem is by betting the turn he will know you don't have a spade draw or a 3 and the river couldn't help you. Another problem is what is he raising UTG and flop leading/turn check calling. AK seems possible with KQ/KJ seeming more likely, the only question is will he fold? That's pretty read dependant on how TAG/weak he is. River push isn't my favorite play ever but after you bet the turn I think it's for sure +ev especially since he MIGHT have missed a draw with QJ/mid or low diamonds.

ninjia3x · #3 03-29-2006, 05:36 PM

nice post.
only thing that u can represent is JsQs I guess.

Althrough u'r line looks a lil fishy, It won't be a easy call by villian, and it doesn't look like he has that much.

ahnuld · #4 03-29-2006, 05:36 PM

I dont like it at all. He probably has AK KQ type hand and wont fold for a pot bet on that river. For AK thats a really safe river card and it is too likely that you have one of the many draws that missed. If hes a good player, he should call here with KQ AK.

captZEEbo · #5 03-29-2006, 05:40 PM

villain has to call 758 on river, and you're not representing that much except Kxs or QsJs. Also, he could easily have the spade draw himself too. I think the bluff is alright though.

lapoker17 · #6 03-29-2006, 05:41 PM

it looks kind of off because if you flopped something real good - set/2pr - you're likely raising with that board and SB/BB still to act. if anything it looks like QJss or air.

Requin · #7 03-29-2006, 05:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really representing anything

[/ QUOTE ]
Thats my problem with this hand. Villain probably calls you fairly often here.

Lucky · #8 03-29-2006, 06:06 PM

check turn

diconoclastsx · #9 03-29-2006, 06:12 PM

terrible
if ur opponent is any kind of decent hand reader you will get picked off by his KQ
what hand are you representing other than a bluff? your overbet says you have a monster, but what hand could you have? there aren't any sets on the flop besides TT/33, and 33 is made less likely with the river 3. TT you prolly raise pf. you prolly pop a set on the flop anyway. i don't like it at all.

bigt439 · #10 03-29-2006, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
terrible
if ur opponent is any kind of decent hand reader you will get picked off by his KQ
what hand are you representing other than a bluff? your overbet says you have a monster, but what hand could you have? there aren't any sets on the flop besides TT/33, and 33 is made less likely with the river 3. TT you prolly raise pf. you prolly pop a set on the flop anyway. i don't like it at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know I said all this in my original post.

I KNOW I'm not representing anything, but my question is, does it matter? Sure a good hand reader who knows his opponent plays well can recognize that, but how often are the two aformentioned conditions satisfied is my question? In this spot against me this is a good and probably easy call with KQ if he knows anything about my game and hand reading, but does he? The question is does "I think he has nothing given the way he played the hand" lose to "I really don't want to get stacked with KQ on this board", enough to make this a good bluff.

Just because a good player would see through this transparent bluff doesn't mean it's a bad bluff against a weaker player (just pointing that out, not commending my own play).

Obviously this is read dependant, but this is also kind of a question about the general game conditions of 1000NL and some of the tendencies of relatively unknown TAGs.