Blind Battle - Call the River?

waynethetrain · #1 03-16-2006, 01:12 PM

I had no read, but my feeling was that a lot of people donk bet when an A hits. Was the river call correct?

I almost routinely raise from the BB when the SB limps and I have a decent HU hand.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
7 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

MrWookie · #2 03-16-2006, 01:15 PM

I usually check preflop with J high.

the river call is easy. Had he raised preflop, then you could consider folding. This will be a bluff 1 time in 7 easily.

waynethetrain · #3 03-16-2006, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I usually check preflop with J high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even against a limp?

I thought J9 was a pretty good hand against a limp?. Plus it allows me to take control.

MrWookie · #4 03-16-2006, 01:51 PM

By raising preflop with a hand that isn't all that likely to be best right now, you're risking two bets to win three (the PFR, and the flop bet). In contrast, by checking and betting any flop when checked to, you risk one bet to win two. The former has to win much more often than the latter to have the same EV. Now, as you get to a hand like KJ or A4, these hands have enough showdown value that your PFR is for value. You want your opponent to call your flop bet because you're probably best, even unpaired. Against passive opponents, this play is awesome because they're less likely to dig in postflop in the smaller pot unpaired, where they might keep hanging around, afraid of being "bullied" if you raise preflop. This was the subject of a magazine article I submitted to the 2+2 mag in Nov, but it's since been taken down.

waynethetrain · #5 03-16-2006, 08:16 PM

Understood. Never thought about it like that.

What about the potential value of the guy folding to my pre flop raise immediately or just increasing the probability that he will fold something marginal because I raised?

stuartharris · #6 03-16-2006, 08:46 PM

This is a spot where notes are really handy. Some players routinely try to steal like this on the river, almost regardless of the card. If he's one of those, this is a no-brainer call. On the other hand, if I've played 100+ hands with villain and never seen the play, I can fold. As it is, I think you must call, getting 6:1. Is there a 14% chance that you're ahead here?

Sushiglutton · #7 03-16-2006, 08:58 PM

I think u can call getting 6:1. Villain can have T9, 55 etc. Probably not but call anyway.

MrWookie · #8 03-16-2006, 09:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Understood. Never thought about it like that.

What about the potential value of the guy folding to my pre flop raise immediately or just increasing the probability that he will fold something marginal because I raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

If the guy will fold immediately, then you should be more inclinded to raise. His fold there is a big mistake. However, these guys are very, very rare.

ThunderEagle · #9 03-16-2006, 10:35 PM

I've been wondering about Blind defense, especially when it is between the blinds. Doesn't happen a ton at the micros, but at what point do you say "It just isn't worth going to war over 1 small bet".

I can understand in tighter games where the opportunity to steal comes up more, but this comes up, like once every couple of hours of playing maybe? That is assuming you happend to be in the BB when it is folded around?