Snapping off cbets

Jouster777 · #1 03-13-2006, 06:09 PM

I think that using aggression to counter aggression is the weakest part of my game and I'm hoping a poll is a good way to get feedback.

You are button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and call a 4BB PFR by CO. The flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and CO makes his usual 3/4 pot bet.

You have a pretty good read that a postflop raise by CO is one of the following:
1. CO will cbet 67% of the time he misses a flop (likelihood of a cbet 35-40%)
2. CO will cbet 100% of the time he misses a flop (likelihood of a cbet 50-60%)

For those who would not call with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in this situation just assume you misclicked [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

trumpman84 · #2 03-13-2006, 06:16 PM

I'm calling in both scenarios. If I'm not continuing with AJs heads up when I flop a pair with a BD flush draw, then I should be folding it preflop. I don't see how raising has much value as you will only be called by hands that are way ahead of yours, and you will likely know more about villain's hand on the turn when he either checks to you or makes another 3/4 pot or bigger value bet. I think against most normal villains, another big bet on the turn means you are beat and I would lay it down, unless I read villain for a maniac.

BukNaked36 · #3 03-13-2006, 06:22 PM

Unless villian has been playing too many hands and making too many c-bets, I fold this because of the K. It's in a typical raising range and I think I'm behind. Make that a J high flop and I'm ready to start betting.

Jouster777 · #4 03-13-2006, 06:28 PM

I tried to pick a scenario where we were behind when he hit but still a good chance he missed so I could estimate reasonable chances of whiffing...maybe a Q instead of a K would have been better. However, substituting a rag for the K means we are only behind 22(?), rag/rag, and JJ+ which makes it far more likely that we are looking at a cbet...different scenario but still interesting. In that situation, you would raise...when do you slow down?