10/20NL Problem

[Dk4884]

I limped with 86spades after 1 early pos. limper and the SB raises to 60, limper calls, so do I. Flop comes 10 7 2 w/ one spade. SB bets 100 into 187 pot and early pos limper calls as do you. Turn is 5 of spades, SB bets 400 and the early pos. limper folded (happen to be Mike the Mouth but not important). I called because at that point I felt alomst certain he had a big PP and I figured it's +EV because if I hit my hand it's a guaranteed double up and if I miss it doesnt leave me short stacked ( I had started the hand with 2300 and the call put me at 1500). What do you think? Bad call? Is it + or -EV move?

[creedofhubris]

Preflop limp is marginal/bad. Flop call is marginal/bad.

Turn call is automatic, unless you want to push.

[BluffTHIS!]

For various reasons, I would sometimes make the flop call headsup in position but not with a 3rd player with only a gutshot, but regarding as played you have a lot of outs but are still almost a 2-1 dog to QQ for example.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1601555
pokenum -h 8s 6s - qh qd -- ts 7d 2h 5s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Ts 5s 7d 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 6s 15 34.09 29 65.91 0 0.00 0.341
Qd Qh 29 65.91 15 34.09 0 0.00 0.659


However you are still getting proper odds on a breakeven basis to call, even if he check/folds when you hit and thus you have no further implied odds. That possibility of not getting paid is why I would rather push the turn to his bet if I thought he were capable of folding an overpair here. If he wasn't capable of that, then I would call if I thought he would bet the river even small or check/call.

[Dk4884]

thanks for critiques...points well taken....he wouldn't have folded his overpair for SURE which is why no raise on turn. Pre flop I thought another 40 in a 140 pot with 86s was fine odds to see a flop. The reason I called the flop bet even when the other limper called was because it was the Mouth and I thought he was calling the bluff and if that was the case they both check the turn and I take it down. Anyway, I called and a brick hit the river he bet 400, i folded and he showed AA. If I hit I definately double up to 4600 which is why I thought the EV was positive even if he had AA.

[cero_z]

[ QUOTE ]
I called the flop bet even when the other limper called was because it was the Mouth and I thought he was calling the bluff and if that was the case they both check the turn and I take it down. Anyway, I called and a brick hit the river he bet 400, i folded and he showed AA. If I hit I definately double up to 4600 which is why I thought the EV was positive even if he had AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is elementary stuff, but just to be clear, if he had bet 400 all-in and both hands were turned faceup, you had an obvious call, let alone a situation where the implied odds favored you so heavily.

I think the flop call is perfectly fine, assuming you are all at least 2000 deep.

But, I don't like your logic regarding your plan to take the pot away on a blank turn. I'm pretty sure if Mike was indeed snapping off a c-bet bluff (as you thought), he would bet a blank turn when checked to, rather than check to a guy (you) who's probably drawing, given that you merely overcalled on the flop.

[Dk4884]

point well taken cero...but if I really put mike on a bluff I may have been able to raise him when he bets the turn which would also put a squezze play on the SB so even if he has a decent hand he may lay it down. No saying I would have but you never know.