Bottom set on drawy board that hits, then rivers underfull

[roggles]

For me, this is a very tricky hand. I'm not going to say too much about my actions, because I just don't really know what to do. As usual I have no reads [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I really need to use PTO, but I don't have windows.

And a theoretical question: If he makes a good bet on the turn, should I just fold?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $77.75
UTG+1: $309.35
CO: $59.85
Button: $73.45
roggles: $80.90
BB: $249.90

Pre-flop: (6 players) roggles is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button calls, roggles calls, BB checks.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6, 6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">roggles bets $6</font>, BB calls, 4 folds.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($18, 2 players)
roggles checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $8</font>, roggles calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($34, 2 players)
roggles checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $17</font>, roggles calls.

Results:
Final pot: $68

[wazz]

You don't need PTO for reads, just observe people and make notes like passive/aggro/tight/loose/tricky/straightforward/bad etc. They'll help no end. Make some more specific notes like callstation, pays too much for draws, semibluffs draws, plays too much OOP, strong, bluffs river if checked to, doesn't fold/don't bluff, will limpreraise QQxx all-in, nitty, etc etc.

In this specific hand, I don't mind check-calling the turn but the majority of the time he doesn't have the straight draw so I bet again. As played the river c/c is perfect, sometimes I bet it because he will have a Q in his hand and it would look like a missed draw, but this is a low-variance play, whereas bet-call or bet-fold are both decent EV/high variance plays.

[JanelleBB7]

This turn bet is unbelievably weak. He wouldn't make a bet like this with the nut straight [ unless he has the nut flush draw as well ]. He is definately weak on the turn. I am fairly certain this player does not have QQxx, KKxx because there was no preflop raise and there was no reraise on the flop.

He has one or a combination of the following: 2 pair, a flush draw, redraw to the straight.

By the river he has most likely beat your weak boat but the problem is you have put yourself in the situation where you have to call. I like your bet on the flop and check on the turn. But when he makes a bet for less than 50% of the pot on the turn, you should repot it or bet 3 times more IMO. If you reraised him on the turn, you would have taken the pot down IMO.

[roggles]

My feeling was that a nut straight is not that unlikely, because he really needs to have some kind of combo draw to make that call on the flop, unless he is terrible.

[JanelleBB7]

I agree. Thats why I say he has flush draw with 2 pair. His bet on turn screams, "I would like to draw to my flush". I have seen plenty of 6Max players play like this though with just two pair on flop, so I would not discount him having no other draws.

[roggles]

Why is FD + 2 pair more likely than FD + straightdraw?

I don't think his bet screams "I would like to draw to my flush", since if he wants to draw he can just check behind.

[JanelleBB7]

On the flop I can see why you think he can have a straight draw, but on the turn his actions do not indicate a made straight. His actions on the turn indicate he is mostly likely to have a flush draw with 2 pair because if he had a straight draw he would have hit; and therefore have made a MUCH more significant bet at the pot. If you hit your nut straight you don't price someone in on a flush draw and he priced you in if you happened to have a flush draw.

You see why I say this now?

Of course it is possible he may happen to have the nut flush draw as well, but highly unlikely!!! Because if he had a hand that good he would have raised Preflop.

So I draw the conculsion he has 2 pair and a flush draw and maybe an inside straight draw but he didn't hit a straight on the turn... if he did he is asking to get busted with a weak bet like that.

Oh I would like to add to your comment why wouldn't he check. Because he can get you to fold is one very good reason and he gets implied odds on his flush. He may also as you pointed out instead of having 2 pair have just a K or a Q and a flush draw or just a K or a Q and an inside straight draw. My point is simply this: He doesn't have the nut straight on the turn and so you should bet him out of the pot.