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Can Hero trust a read enough to fold here?
Hero is just learning PLO. This hand represents one of the first times Hero is faced with making a tough(?) decison based on Villain reads.
Hero's table image - not that anyone is watching at $10 PLO - is nut peddling. Villain's stats over 50 hands are 45% VP$iP - 0% PFR - 3.0 total aggression - 32% aggression frequency flop - 56% aggression frequency turn - 67% aggression frequency river. Villain occationally overcommits to a hand. Villain seems to be using hold'em hand valuations at time rather than Omaha valuations (IE over values two pair, non-nut flushes and made straights/flushes on paired boards.) Villain raises preflop this hand. Looking at his 45/0 stat, Hero puts him on aces + two random cards. Hero decides to go "set mining" based on the hope that Villain will pay off with unimproved aces by being over aggressive. The flop is a dream flop - Hero decides to give villain a free card on the turn hoping to pick off another bet. The turn card is a disaster, making villain aces full if Hero's preflop read is accurate. The question is: Should Hero rely on his read and fold or is there enough doubt that hero should call down. PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.10 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) SB ($1.90) BB ($9.15) UTG ($11.95) MP1 ($21.70) MP2 ($14.50) CO ($7.10) Hero ($29.15) Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 7, 8, 7. [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]MP2 raises to $0.35</font>, CO calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>. Flop: ($1.50) 5, 8, 5 [color=#0000FF](4 players)</font> SB checks, [color=#CC3333]MP2 bets $1.45</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $1.45, SB folds. Turn: ($4.40) A [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font> [color=#CC3333]MP2 bets $4.2</font>, Hero ? |
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