KQ facing riv c/r from tag bb

[joseki]

BB is 14/10/3.8 over 221 hands. Recent history: he 3-bet preflop and folded to flop raise on KTd4d board.

I'm not sure about the turn check, river bet, or response to his c/r...I suck.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($34.80)
SB ($37.65)
BB ($40)
UTG ($9.60)
MP ($23.55)
CO ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, BB calls $2, UTG folds.

Turn: ($7.10) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $12.5</font>, Hero...

[Spurious]

I'd bet the turn.
I dont know if we have to go for potcontrol here.
As played, he seems to be quite aggressive, maybe even a regluar 2+2 poster or something.
I guess he could pull a bluff here.
I doubt he got a 7 since he would have bet the river.

I think he's bluffing or doing it with a worse king/two pair.

[Jamougha]

it's a tarp

[Genesis]

Just bet the turn, I see no reason to check behind there.

As played I'm calling the river but not too happy about it. He is tight preflop so I could reasonably expect to see KQs, AK, TT, maybe even 77.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a tarp

[/ QUOTE ]
tarp = trap ?

Also, you guys saying to bet turn and/or call river, what do you think he's putting me on? He probably has AK as a big part of my range, and he sure looks like he's raised for value against that range.

As I thought about this hand, here's my range assessment for him:

preflop call: PP, broadways KQ+, maybe a few suited connectors or AXs

flop call: A7s, sc's w/ 7's, 88-JJ, KQ, AQ

turn check: nothing new really

river check: nothing new really

river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??

I was hesitant to bet river, but talked myself into it thinking there was some chance he'd look me up w/ worse and I didn't think he'd bluff raise. If that was a bluff c/r it was a pretty sick move...I folded, and felt stupid for betting in the first place.

[Genesis]

[ QUOTE ]
river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??


[/ QUOTE ]
I used your range (minus the PPs that are bluffing)

Board: 7c 7d Qh Ts Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 42.86% 09.52% 63 14.00 { TT, AKs, A7s, KQs, 87s, 76s, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.619% 38.10% 09.52% 56 14.00 { KQo }

Plenty of equity to call.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??


[/ QUOTE ]
I used your range (minus the PPs that are bluffing)

Board: 7c 7d Qh Ts Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 42.86% 09.52% 63 14.00 { TT, AKs, A7s, KQs, 87s, 76s, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.619% 38.10% 09.52% 56 14.00 { KQo }

Plenty of equity to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You added AK, which may be possible when he checks the river, but seems like stretch after the raise. I mean, he's hoping for a call from KJ?

One thing that I prolly should have known, but that is made painfully clear from these simulations, is the dramatic effect that a small bluffing probability can have on our equity:

w/ 88, 99 &amp; JJ as bluffs:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.069% 62.07% 00.00% 18 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 37.931% 37.93% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

99 and JJ:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.174% 52.17% 00.00% 12 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 47.826% 47.83% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-99, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

w/ JJ only:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-TT, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

and obv:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 100.000% 100.00% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ, TT, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

[Hebel]

whoever said villain is a solid 2p2 type must be kidding

villains line is terrible, and if he indeed has a monster he got lucky to cooler someone else with top two pair

i like the river value bet, as well as the check on the turn

this is an easy call getting 3:1 against a bizarre line, and i would expect to see another kq as well as a strangely played q10 here

[Mr. Ratface]

I actually like the turn check a lot. The only draw that we are scared of really is KJ and I really don't see how he can get to the turn with that. Checking keeps the pot small and avoids us getting raised on the turn which sucks.

I like the value bet on the river and I think after the raise it's a call. You're getting enough equity and I honestly think he doesn't have a 7. If he does, make a note, and move on.

[well named]

grunching... I call the river mainly because our line doesn't look very strong, and given that he has checked twice now it's easy for us to be value betting with just a queen or king or even bluffing outright. He quite often could be raising with a worse hand (AK, QJ, QT), or with a hand trying to push us off a chop, or even with a bluff, although I agree if he is bluffing it is somewhat ill-considered since his line also looks quite suspicious.