25NL Okay to fold KK here?

RapidEvolution · #1 11-04-2007, 09:26 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($9.15)
SB ($17.85)
BB ($9.45)
UTG ($10.30)
MP1 ($21.70)
MP2 ($5.35)
Hero ($27.30)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.5, 1 fold, SB calls $1.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25.

Flop: ($6.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets $6, UTG folds, MP1 calls $6, Hero folds.

Turn: ($18.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $10.35 (All-In), MP1 calls $10.35.

River: ($0) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $38.95

Less than 20 hands on each villain. Flop fold okay here?

AlexB182 · #2 11-04-2007, 09:43 AM

I think it's fold or shove here but I don't blame you for folding here though I think you could easily have the best hand right now. Problem is: if SB bets out with something like AJ and MP1 calls with say two spades or even a big combo draw, you're not even a fav to win this hand even though you're in front right now...

PokerFun007 · #3 11-04-2007, 09:52 AM

At this level, I'd shove and hope to get heads up against one drawer...or take it down now (unlikely)

AllTheCheese · #4 11-04-2007, 10:07 AM

Shove flop. Not okay to fold IMO.

iponnet · #5 11-04-2007, 10:24 AM

need some reads, without them its a close one probably shove.

Dennisa · #6 11-04-2007, 10:37 AM

SPR of 3, I do not think I am folding an overpair.

RapidEvolution · #7 11-04-2007, 10:50 AM

I normally don't mind getting in here HU, but against a pot sized donk bet AND a call, I don't think I'm ahead of both of them often enough to shove. Alex, I agree and think that honestly, that's the best case scenario (1 has TP, the other has a draw).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

130,032 games 0.005 secs 26,006,400 games/sec

Board: Ts Js 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.283% 56.56% 00.72% 73544 942.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 11.243% 11.16% 00.08% 14514 106.00 { AJs, AJo }
Hand 2: 31.474% 30.67% 00.81% 39878 1048.00 { AsQs, As9s, As8s, As7s, KQs, 9s8s, KQo }

In the best case scenario, I have some nice equity, but as soon as we start adding 2 pairs and sets, it gets murky. Again, I'm assuming that one has a made hand and the other has a draw.

Board: Ts Js 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.074% 29.86% 00.75% 101934 2556.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 44.174% 39.69% 00.03% 135463 106.00 { JJ-TT, 55, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }
Hand 2: 24.792% 28.89% 00.78% 98613 2662.00 { AsQs, As9s, As8s, As7s, KQs, 9s8s, KQo,AK }

Without FE, shoving seems marginal at best. :/

AllTheCheese · #8 11-04-2007, 11:14 AM

No offense Rapid, but the ranges you give are nonsense. First of all, we shouldn't assume exactly one of them has a made hand and one of them is drawing, we should assume a mixture of made hands and draws for both. Also, why can nobody have KJ or QJ? What about 8s7s? Why can they have As8s but not As5s? Here's a more a reasonable range IMO.

Board: Js Ts 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.402% 36.09% 00.31% 5557236 47923.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 31.799% 30.79% 01.01% 4740372 156026.50 { JJ-TT, 55, AsQs, AJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, Qs9s, JTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }
Hand 2: 31.799% 30.79% 01.01% 4740372 156026.50 { JJ-TT, 55, AsQs, AJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KJs+, QJs, Qs9s, JTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

EDIT: Forgot to include JTo. Fixed.
EDIT 2: Forgot to give us the Ks, which will improve our odds slightly. I'm not changing it [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Also, why don't we have FE? Maybe not much, but certainly some. SB could be easily be donking AT or J9 "to see where's he at". I really feel like this is a clear shove and it's not close. A lot of times we get in with a 35%-40% shot, which I know is not great, but it's a 35%-40% shot to triple up so it's more than justified.

RapidEvolution · #9 11-04-2007, 11:33 AM

I agree about putting them both on the draw/made hand range, but limp-calling with as2s? If I had donkish reads on these guys, sure, but I don't think that's default. I'll believe this, though.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,859,277 games 0.047 secs 39,559,085 games/sec

Board: Ts Js 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.301% 35.73% 00.57% 664272 10671.50 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 34.303% 33.37% 00.93% 620430 17356.00 { JJ-TT, 55, AsQs, AJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, KJs+, JTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AJo, KJo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 29.396% 28.41% 00.98% 528267 18280.50 { JJ-TT, 55, AJs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, KJs+, JTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AJo, KJo+ }

---
This range seems pretty good and it's still marginal. I dunno...I just think that at 25NL there are better spots to make money than pushing extremely slim +EV hands. How does the rake factor into this?

(edited: forgot to add KJs+ and AJs+ the first time)

AllTheCheese · #10 11-04-2007, 11:56 AM

Well, let's work it out. To make it simpler, we'll use your second range and assume SB shoved and UTG called (since we're considering our FE to be approximmately 0). Assume also that both SB and UTG have $20 stacks instead of $18 and $22 (this way we don't have to worry about odd sidepot business).

So, according to pokerstove, 36% of the time we win ($20+$20+$6)=$46 and 64% of the time we lose our $20 call.
So the EV on the call goes like .36($46)-.64($20)= +$3.76 per hand. If we really believe in the range we settled upon, this is a call. Missing $3.76 in a $25 game is a decent-sized mistake. I think even if we used your first range (the less favorable one), we still profit by shoving.
.31*($46)-.69($20)=+$0.50.

EDIT: Really I should've given them ~$18.50 stacks but I don't feel like changing it. It'll actually make the call more +EV for us when they have smaller stacks.