AA on baby board.

[castigar]

Vilain is 15/13/7 on 300 datamined hands. When he called me PF, I put him on a PP. 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,TT. I would be surprised to see him slowplay AK/AQ because of his PFR stats..

With his raise on the flop, I put him on 44,55,66,77,88,99,TT. (88,99,TT is possible here because he has 7 AF..)

On the turn, I decided to check back because I was scared of a c/r. On the river he thought for a while and bet 66% of the pot.

With a 7 on the board, I thought his range now beat me:
He wins with 44,55,66,77,88 and only loses with 99,TT.

Do you think this was a good fold? And would you have pushed the flop instead? Seems like only sets/overpair+OESD call me.

Secondary question: If you say to call, would you have called if he was 15/13/3.5 ?

Thanks


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $100
BTN: $123.15
SB: $158.50
BB: $185
Hero (UTG): $235.95

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($11.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $8</font>, BTN calls $8, <font color="red">SB raises to $35</font>, Hero calls $27, BTN folds

Turn: ($89.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($89.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $60</font>, Hero folds

[cakewalk]

bet full pot on the flop..and look at this:

[ QUOTE ]
With his raise on the flop, I put him on 44,55,66,77,88,99,TT. (88,99,TT is possible here because he has 7 AF..)

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.005 secs 6,534,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 6h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.809% 60.16% 01.65% 19653 540.00 { AcAh }
Hand 1: 38.191% 36.54% 01.65% 11937 540.00 { TT-44 }

so..jam that flop all day.

also i think he has a shitton of draws on that flop because he called behind someone else.

[Jamougha]

Fold flop he has a set, maybe 77. Shoving the river would be sick.

[castigar]

Thing is, I'd be surprised if he called a push on flop with 88,99,TT..

[Jamougha]

btw AF over 300 hands is nearly meaningless, that stat hasn't converged yet.

[Claunchy]

FWIW, having an AF of 7 doesn't necessarily widen villain's range here. If he c/r'd all sets and c/f'd everything else, he'd have a super-high agg factor but be really nitty.

[orange]

fold the flop. he's shown so much strength. i doubt he does this with TT.