78s from MP, how's my line with combo draw by turn

[tdx]

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $59.84
Hero (MP): $31.65
CO: $30.50
BTN: $25.04
SB: $24.40
BB: $37.12 <font color="blue">No real reads. Villain is 52/20 over 25 hands </font>

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $3</font>, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($8.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5

How's the flop and turn line? I think there isn't much point in raising the turn as when I call and hit, we're gonna play for stacks anyway. I'm interested how would you play a hand like this at NL50 &amp; NL100?

[whyzze]

against an agressive this can be a b3b on the flop.

against a 52/20 I'm just calling the turn.


you didn't give us an AF.

[wingchunflush]

We are in position a call is good, here allows him to bet confidently one more time on the river.

[wslee00]

looks good so far, doesn't look like villain is folding

[kurto]

I don't see why the hand should change depending on the stakes. It might change with different opponents (in other words, if a player would lay down to a push on the turn, then pushing may be appropriate.)

As it is-- the villain is giving you the right odds to call the turn. He's not likely the type to fold if you raise. So calling the turn to see if you hit is great.

[Bad Beat Expert]

Personally, I think it's best to bet/3-bet on the flop, because a) he probably has 9-x which he check-raised you with and b) you already raised pre-flop, and can represent an overpair to his pair of nines. Against something like 9To, you have 31% equity, so you just need him to fold to your 3-bet once in a while as long as you don't make it too absurdly big (against J9s, you have 37% equity). I'd try re-popping him to $12, so he'd really have to think about whether his pair of nines (or even possible draw or bluff) is good. Hopefully he folds. If he calls, then you can get a free river card if you miss on the turn, which is an added advantage. If he moves in on you, you've priced yourself into a call.

As played, the turn call is OK, since he's already crossed the "committment threshold", and probably won't go away if you re-pop him all-in now (he's priced in at 2-to-1 with no future action to come). I just don't like calling off such a big chunk of my stack on such a draw, but that's a stylistic preference, I can't argue with it in terms of pure pot odds.

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think it's best to bet/3-bet on the flop, because a) he probably has 9-x which he check-raised you with and b) you already raised pre-flop, and can represent an overpair to his pair of nines. Against something like 9To, you have 31% equity, so you just need him to fold to your 3-bet once in a while as long as you don't make it too absurdly big. I'd try re-popping him to $12, so he'd really have to think about whether his pair of nines (or even possible draw or bluff) is good. Hopefully he folds. If he calls, then you can get a free river card if you miss on the turn, which is an added advantage. If he moves in on you, you've priced yourself into a call.

As played, the turn call is OK, since he's already crossed the "committment threshold", and probably won't go away if you re-pop him all-in now (he's priced in at 2-to-1 with no future action to come). I just don't like calling off such a big chunk of my stack on such a draw, but that's a stylistic preference, I can't argue with it in terms of pure pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. Players with stats like this are NOT the type to try to make them fold their 1 pair hands. Advising people to bluff idiots who will never fold a pair is bad.

These are players you valuebet to death. Not bluff.

[Bad Beat Expert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think it's best to bet/3-bet on the flop, because a) he probably has 9-x which he check-raised you with and b) you already raised pre-flop, and can represent an overpair to his pair of nines. Against something like 9To, you have 31% equity, so you just need him to fold to your 3-bet once in a while as long as you don't make it too absurdly big. I'd try re-popping him to $12, so he'd really have to think about whether his pair of nines (or even possible draw or bluff) is good. Hopefully he folds. If he calls, then you can get a free river card if you miss on the turn, which is an added advantage. If he moves in on you, you've priced yourself into a call.

As played, the turn call is OK, since he's already crossed the "committment threshold", and probably won't go away if you re-pop him all-in now (he's priced in at 2-to-1 with no future action to come). I just don't like calling off such a big chunk of my stack on such a draw, but that's a stylistic preference, I can't argue with it in terms of pure pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. Players with stats like this are NOT the type to try to make them fold their 1 pair hands. Advising people to bluff idiots who will never fold a pair is bad.

These are players you valuebet to death. Not bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I don't think you should run a pure bluff on a player like this, but this is a great spot for a semi-bluff IMHO because this guy splashes around in a TON of pots and could really have anything (even if 9-x is the most likely) and it gives you the lead in the hand, which generates fold equity while almost ensuring that you get paid off if he calls and you hit.

Here are my calculations for the flop, if his probability of folding is f and your pot equity is y on the flop and turn (it looks like it's about the same on both streets in this problem):
EV(call down)=-1.75+y*8.1
EV(3bet)=-10.75+f*17.1+(1-f)*y*26.1

If y=0.37 and f=0.33, then EV(call down)=$1.25
and EV(3bet)=$1.36.

So this strategy will be more profitable if villain folds at least a third of the time. Also, note that this calculation ignores the implied odds of the 3bet strategy associated with making it harder for villain to fold if you hit.

[Bad Beat Expert]

About the reads, I just wanted to mention that the VPIP obtained from a sample of 25 hands can only guaranteed to be between about 12% and 92% with 95% confidence. That's only marginally helpful, so I would go more based on my read of the "average" player at these limits on Party. Obviously most low-limit Party players won't like laying down hands, but a 3-bet is a very strong move, especially if it's the first time you make it. That's why I think a 3-bet semibluff might lead to a fold at least a third of the time. However, I'd be interested in hearing the poster's reads.

[bknollenberg]

i would be either 3 betting the flop or raising the turn. against someone so aggressive i understand why it may be a bad idea given that he's likely not folding, but in spots like this i'm comfortable getting the money in with a billion outs against whatever pair, two pair or i guess set he has.

well, now that i think of it though it would really depend. if he seemed like he was a solid player (i know, i see his stats but sample size makes it meaningless and you can play that way and still understand board texture and such) and he would be hesitant to put money in on the river if a 3-flush came, or even a 10, i'm definitely raising the turn. if he seems like a total spewtard who would say "OMFG i has top pair / two pair / set / ace high", then flat call the turn.