Analysis of a downswing

[BalugaWhale]

So, as many of you know, I went busto. I went there pretty hard. Seeing as (hopefully) I will be unbusto very soon, I have been looking through PT and identifying what factors contributed to me losing what ended up amounting to 28 buyins in total for 25nl--although not all were lost at 25nl.

I am going to group the two biggest problems (within my control)together that ravaged my bankroll. Hopefully this will help some of you identify some of your problems and help us all get better.

TWO ISSUES: Tilt and a Top Pair Problem

As in any downswing, I got sucked out on for my stack more than a couple times. Sometimes, I got sucked out on more than once in a session. Now, I prided myself on keeping composure and not tilting. I never did things like pushing All-In preflop with garbage, or calling raises with trash hands.

I did find, however, that after losing a big pot... I overvalued marginal hands. This was most important part of getting better and understanding why I lost money.

A typical progression was as follows:
Following my standard guidelines for play, I raise a good hand, flop a good hand/draw, and lose my stack in what would be considered an acceptable way.
Then, I pick up a top pair type hand. After flopping the top pair, I became FAR, FAR too willing to go to the felt with it.

caveat- When someone raises your top pair on the turn, it's not good

This became a subtle form of tilt. It isn't as though I simply played bad cards or made outrageous bets. I didn't. I made marginal to poor calls with marginal to poor made hands on the flop and turn.

Another Problem: I never thought it could happen to me.

As soon as you think your bankroll is completely safe, think again. As soon as you think you're a consistent winning player, think again. It's been said here many times that humility is the key to successful poker, and it's true. Playing online casually is roughly the same as playing online badly, in my opinion.

Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

A few notes on preflop looseness:
I played a lot of hands... definitely too many for full ring. Switching to 6-max was a great idea, I just wish I would've had more of a roll when I did. The truth is, marginal holdings and LAGish play at Small Stakes Full Ring is a losing preposition. It can be done, I am sure, but it would be damn, damn, damn difficult. My FR VPIP was around 28, my pfr at about 13. Those numbers are simply bad for full ring.

This next comment is something I'd really like some discussion on:
The key to solving the problem of being too loose is to emphasize position. Somebody once posted on here that folding AQ UTG in 6-max wouldn't really be leaving much money on the table, if any. I think they're right (I still raise AQ UTG 6max, but I certainly think twice about AJ now., and, after all... AQ is just a trumped up AJ [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
So, I plan on tightening up SIGNIFICANTLY utg... and continuing to play my loose, raising style from LP.

This forum has helped me become far, far better than I was when I started, and I'm definitely still getting better. There's a long way to go. Hopefully I'll be back at the table soon.

BTW, if anybody has a link to that thread, "Sooner or later you'll run worse than you ever thought was possible", I'd appreciate if you posted it. That thread sums up a lot of the way I felt about the last few months of poker.

Variance is a bitch, but if you look closely enough, you'll see that we make bad plays all the time. Identifying the things you do poorly is the key to making yourself a better player. Hopefully I'm on the way.

Sorry this was so long.

PS: this is what a part of the alphabet would look like if Q and R were removed.

PPS: If anybody has questions about the types of hands I ran into... i posted a lot of the ones that I felt might've been unavoidable situations. I didn't post that many of the ones where I horribly overvalued my hand, because I generally knew what I did wrong. If this will help you guys learn, I can post these too.

[bent96]

Great post.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?
Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=1825403& fpart=1&PHPSESSID=

This is a link to Gigabet's post which is in response to Irieguys sng, you'll run bad post. Hope that is what you are looking for.

I would also love to discuss some EP standards, but I have mostly questions and few answers so I'll wait for someone else to comment.

[quarkncover]

[ QUOTE ]
I never did things like pushing All-In preflop with garbage, or calling raises with trash hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my problem when I tilt, I go on wild super monkey tilt [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

NH Baluga.

[AllIn3High]

Very good post, and very good insight. I cannot comment on your poker skills, but your certainly have the proper mindset to become a good poker player. I wish you good luck on becoming unBUSTO.

[getmyrunon]

Great post - I can identify those two traits in myself as well. I get a sick feeling in my stomach when I get stacked, and then a simultaneous "I have to get it back" desperation feeling, which led to me playing AQ/AK/ppairs much more aggressively than I normally would. I also suffered from the "my broll is so high I can't lose it" mentality.

[Jamougha]

Very very good post. Everything you say is absolutely dead on. Nothing meaningful I can add.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
Very very good post. Everything you say is absolutely dead on. Nothing meaningful I can add.

[/ QUOTE ]

[matrix]

nh Baluga - good stuff. Hopefully you don't go busto again...

[ QUOTE ]

Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

BR requirements are different for everyone and are rally about how comfortable you are - and how good a player you are. Most people (me included) overrate their playing skills especially if they are running hot. You are not as good as you think you are.

I play $50NL and my roll is hovering around $500 - some days it dips to $300 - some days it zooms to $600. I am getting frustrated a lot of the time because I can't seem to make headway - instead of grinding out a slow steady br increase I am instead going up and down - up and down - it's infuriating that I am basically playing break even poker right now, but after every losing session I look over my plays in PT and if I made a good decision I am happy. If I made a bad one (just yesterday I stacked myself with TPTK and I know very well that I shoudn't be going to the felt for a whole stack wth TPTK EVER - barring a great read) I can at least recognise what I've done and try not to repeat these mistakes in the future.

In short yes I agree completely be careful about moving up in limits. Hopefully soon I will have a large enough roll for me ($700) to take a 2-buyin shot at $100NL - I fully accept that I might well run bad - get outluckboxed and lose my $200 in short order if this happens I move straight back down to $50NL and rebuild again - rinse and repeat. If after failing at this a couple of times then I will regroup build myself a $1k roll and move up for a little longer, more news as it happens.

I don't recommend anyone else tries this unless you aren't going to be playing scared at the higher limit and you also have the discipline to move down if it all goes horribly wrong. I'd also point out that I am very calm and collected most of the time and I don't tilt very easily, I know from experience that I can get all of my money in the middle with a 99% chance of winning and sometimes that 1 outter will hit - if it does there's little I can do - but I will try to keep getting my money in the middle whenever I think I have a big enough edge, let the cards fall as they choose - and in the long run I will win.

the oft quoted 20-buyins br rule is a good starting point. Depending on your style of play - where you play - how well you are running - and whether you can afford to go BUSTO or not will affect this.

The biggest overriding law of gambling I think is this.

DO NOT GAMBLE MONEY THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

For bankrolls more is always better - but I don't think you HAVE to have 20buyins or more necessarily to move up.

BR requirements are mostly about personal comfort - if you can handle the consequences of losing a hefty chunk of your roll in one hand then by all means go for it - but unless you are comfortable playing at a higher level (scared money is already dead) then don't move up until you are comfortable, and if that means you need 100buyins in your roll then wait till you get that far before you take the step up.

[BalugaWhale]

matrix-
I agree that buyin prerequisites do vary by the player. And you're totally right when you say that more is NEVER a problem.

However, about 15 hands into my first go-round at 50NL, I had rebought in for about 25, and I had my stack up to nearly 100. I picked up 66, flop came down JT6... I got it all in vs. two opponents (one had TT and the other had KK and spiked a K on the river). The pot was about 260 bucks... far, far, far larger than anything I'd ever dealt with at 25NL. To have that happen was something I was totally unprepared for.

In short, it really sucked.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
nh Baluga - good stuff. Hopefully you don't go busto again...

[ QUOTE ]

Be Careful moving up limits!!
I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll.

[/ QUOTE ]

BR requirements are different for everyone and are rally about how comfortable you are - and how good a player you are. Most people (me included) overrate their playing skills especially if they are running hot. You are not as good as you think you are.

I play $50NL and my roll is hovering around $500 - some days it dips to $300 - some days it zooms to $600. I am getting frustrated a lot of the time because I can't seem to make headway - instead of grinding out a slow steady br increase I am instead going up and down - up and down - it's infuriating that I am basically playing break even poker right now, but after every losing session I look over my plays in PT and if I made a good decision I am happy. If I made a bad one (just yesterday I stacked myself with TPTK and I know very well that I shoudn't be going to the felt for a whole stack wth TPTK EVER - barring a great read) I can at least recognise what I've done and try not to repeat these mistakes in the future.

In short yes I agree completely be careful about moving up in limits. Hopefully soon I will have a large enough roll for me ($700) to take a 2-buyin shot at $100NL - I fully accept that I might well run bad - get outluckboxed and lose my $200 in short order if this happens I move straight back down to $50NL and rebuild again - rinse and repeat. If after failing at this a couple of times then I will regroup build myself a $1k roll and move up for a little longer, more news as it happens.

I don't recommend anyone else tries this unless you aren't going to be playing scared at the higher limit and you also have the discipline to move down if it all goes horribly wrong. I'd also point out that I am very calm and collected most of the time and I don't tilt very easily, I know from experience that I can get all of my money in the middle with a 99% chance of winning and sometimes that 1 outter will hit - if it does there's little I can do - but I will try to keep getting my money in the middle whenever I think I have a big enough edge, let the cards fall as they choose - and in the long run I will win.

the oft quoted 20-buyins br rule is a good starting point. Depending on your style of play - where you play - how well you are running - and whether you can afford to go BUSTO or not will affect this.

The biggest overriding law of gambling I think is this.

DO NOT GAMBLE MONEY THAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

For bankrolls more is always better - but I don't think you HAVE to have 20buyins or more necessarily to move up.

BR requirements are mostly about personal comfort - if you can handle the consequences of losing a hefty chunk of your roll in one hand then by all means go for it - but unless you are comfortable playing at a higher level (scared money is already dead) then don't move up until you are comfortable, and if that means you need 100buyins in your roll then wait till you get that far before you take the step up.

[/ QUOTE ]

All good points.

One thing I'd like to point out is that the 20 buy-in roll becomes alot more important the further you get from say $100nl. If you're a $10nl player, losing your roll is not that big of a deal because you just work a few hours at your normal job and reload. Not so, if you're playing say $1000nl.

Also, as you move up the games become tougher and more aggressive and thus swings become bigger (magnify this by 2-3x if you're playing a lot of shorthanded) and 10xbuy-in swings become FAIRLY COMMON.

When I first started out I didn't pratice any form of bankroll management and I went BUSTO. No big deal, I realoaded some more and got back into my $10NL game. Eventually I ran well and moved up, only after going nearly BUSTO a few times (and moving down several stakes) did I realize the importance of having enough buy-ins for a certain level. It sucks to have to move down from a limit where you know you're a winner just because of a few beats. Rather grind out a little more at a lower level and catch on at the new level.

But, all-in-all. The easiest way to move up quickly is to take some gambling shots at a higher level, run well, and stay there until you get comfortable and properly rolled. Rinse and repeat.