99 raise or shove?

[NYTyler]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t69398)
MP2 (t92665)
MP3 (t31239)
CO (t200785)
Button (t40221)
SB (t23457)
Hero (t31376)
UTG (t15631)
UTG+1 (t25762)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t1200, MP3 calls t1200, CO calls t1200, Button calls t1200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

Now I sort of like to raise here but not shove and reevaluate on the flop but there are also a ton of people in this hand and I don't want too many callers. I think shoving here is the best option. I think I must have the best hand. Anyone help me out and give me a little insight as to the best way to play this one?

[Rocco]

How about just check and play for set value? A shove would probably pick up the pot, so that's fine too. A meaningful raise is about 1/3rd of you stack and likely to put you in a tough position if the flop brings overcards and you have to play it OOP. So call &gt; shove &gt; raise...

[brad2002tj]

I probably check here 70% of teh time and push 30% of teh time, depending on reads. I would worry mainly about mp2.

[SuperUberBob]

I see three options here.

1. Check and play for set value: The conservative, safe play. You can see the flop for free and get paid off huge if you flop a set. Otherwise, you fold and only lose your BB (which was already in there anyways). You basically have a chance for an infinite return on your hand.

2. Raise to 9000, shove any flop: This is the more risky play. If you get called, you're out of position, possibly against multiple opponents. You probably won't get re-raised all-in by any of the limpers. This is the worst of the three options because you commit a large amount of your stack to the pot and let your opponents catch up to you.

3. Shove preflop: This makes things real easy for you. The problem is that your stack here is a bit too large to make this move. You probably have the best hand and if you're called, it's likely that you're at worst a slight favorite in the hand. If you want to gamble and build a monster stack, this is a good option.

check &gt;&gt; shove &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; raise

[Dunkman]

I think playing for set value could possibly have a slightly higher chip expectation than shoving PF, but shoving PF has much much much lower variance, and with a 26 BB stack we need chips now. That's one thing you're looking for in tournaments, not the 1 in 10 play that wins a monster pot, but plays that consistently pick up chips so you can go deep on a regular basis. With the pot equal to 25% of our stack I'd jam this all day.

Actually I gave playing for set value way too much credit. Lets say every time you hit a set you stack someone. Still, you're winning 125% of your stack 1 time in 9, where as shoving nets you 25% like every time, and I'd argue it nets you even more when you get called because your hand is so far ahead of their ranges. Shoving has a lower variance and a cEV that far exceeds checking, it is clearly the best play.

[NYTyler]

Yes that is true too...I guess my thinking was that if I raise really I could only shove because as you said I don't want to be in a tough position...but if I just raise to 8K-9K then I get an early caller and then another...I don't want to play this hand multiway. So if I don't call then shoving really seems to be the best option. I am pretty sure I have the best hand here. I had not gotten too many hands as of late and felt a little desparate to double up. YOu don't think I should exploit the marginal advantage here and try to get it heads up where I am a 6/4 or 11/10 favorite?

[ssnyc]

ugh...readsless I just see a flop...I see it as a shove (Which I like) or just call and see flop...raise may get multiple callers and we are OOP

[dlwbppd]

I would check for set value.

With 5 players in the hand flopping a set could as much as tripple you up. Shoving on the other hand will take down the pot most of the time, but MP2 could have a higher PP in which case were in trouble.

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
ugh...readsless I just see a flop...I see it as a shove (Which I like) or just call and see flop...raise may get multiple callers and we are OOP

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna keep hammering this, because I think a number of factors make this a really great shove, and make shoving far preferable to anything else. We have determined that a raise that isn't a shove is bad, for obvious reasons. Even if everyone folds every time, shoving makes way more chips on average than just calling for set value. However, it's so much better than that. What kinds of hands are people likely limping? Suited aces, which are almost always folding, and if not, we are 70% against, because, aside from AT exactly, they would all be raising PF. Next we have connectors, which are folding always because no one is calling a shove here with T high or whatever. Lastly, you have the bread and butter limping hands, small to mid pairs. The great thing about these is that someone could easily put you on AK/AQ and CALL!!!, especially CO, who has a friggin mountain of chips and can call you with impunity, it's less than 20% of his stack. Then he, or someone else, calls with 66 and you're a huge favorite to win a monster pot and put yourself in fantastic position to go deep. I can't see anyone ever showing up with TT+, but I suppose 1 time in 100 someone ends up with a very passive TT (or MP2 limping a monster, but I seriously doubt that considering how deep he is,) but I'm not worried about that in the least. I guess this may go unnoticed, but I want to at least try to convince you guys how much better shoving is than anything else. I don't feel like it's a shove or call are both ok spot, I think it's shoving&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt ;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;calling&gt;anything else.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

With antes (150), there's 7850 in the pot when the action gets to you or better than 25% of your stack, which makes this look like a pretty reasonable place to shove. MP2 is the only one I'd worry about calling you, as almost any hand CO would decide was good enough to call the shove he'd have already raised in position. The other ones won't call because of stack size.