200NL - bruff

[SpecT]

30/10/2.5 donkish doody. 5 river AF. He's one of those guys where the standard pot he plays in goes c/c flop, turn gets checked through then he leads river. I'm thinking this is the ultimate bluff card

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $169.88
BB: $436.46
UTG: $211.65
MP: $112.55
CO: $120.25
Hero (BTN): $199

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $9

Flop: ($27) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $19</font>, CO calls $19

Turn: ($65) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($65) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $30</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $115</font> (putting him allin)

[spivey]

I think he's calling. Villains seem to love putting you on AK when you take this line, so I dunno if most donks bluff here. I don't see it much, anyways.

[SpecT]

so he only bets river with 2pair+ (note betsizing)

[Unknown Soldier]

i'd want a read that he b/f river with similar bets before i try this. Decent board to do it on though.

[spivey]

Not necessarily, but I wouldn't expect him to fold KT+. I'm just saying if he has air here, I doubt he'd bluff this card.

Honestly, I wouldn't trust a donk to fold any K here.

[spivey]

I wouldn't be shocked if he calls with a lot of J's as well. Donks seem to care more about pot odds than putting you on a range and trying to figure out how they fare against it, and I don't think that he's folding too much here.