100 NL, river a set on a 4-straight board. Value shove?

[SABR42]

Villain is 23/5 and very passive.

Hero is around 18/14/2.7

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $219.35
BB: $100
Hero (UTG): $128.35
UTG+1: $136.10
UTG+2: $108.80
MP1: $28.50
MP2: $125.25
CO: $152.25
BTN: $98.50

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($16.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $12
<font color="blue"> Rainbow flop with 1 paint. I don't c-bet in a 4-way pot very often, but this is as good a spot as there is for that. I should take it down a decent percentage of the time because it's hard for anyone without at least top pair to continue.</font>

Turn: ($40.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
<font color="blue"> Once he calls me I put him on a decent Q, or possibly a slowplayed set. I'm giving up, hoping for a 3 or 5.</font>

River: ($40.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $22</font>, Hero calls or shoves?

He has $62 left after his river bet.

[Brocktoon]

Him being passive is a double edged sword here.

On the one hand, how can he possibly have a 3 in his hand after calling a 4x UTG raise and then calling that super dry flop?

On the other hand, what is he going to bet $22 OOP on the river with when there is a 4 straight staring him right in the face?

Granted, there is very little chance that you have a 3 either so he shouldn't fear it, that said most of the very passive full ring players that I notice check their non-monsters on scary/coordinated boards regardless of the likelyhood of their opponent actually holding the card(s) they fear.

Originally I was going to reply that you should shove since he almost never has a 3 there. Then the more I looked at it the more I reaized that the majority of passive players aren't betting 1 pair of Queens there either, even if its AQ.

I think he's going to show you a set there fairly often. Even so it is probably going to be sixes or dueces much more often than Queens. Still, Queens cant be comlpetely ruled out either since possibly he was looking for a CR on the turn.

If he's equally likely to have 66 as 22, and equally likely to have QQ or 3x as he is to have some crappy pair/garbage hand, then raising gains you nothing even if he calls everytime. But since in reality he will be able to fold his pair hands you will be geting called by more hands that beat you than you beat making shoving -EV under those assumptions.

Obviously these parameters are assuming a lot, but I think that overall its close enough where I would just check, see what he has, and take notes on it.

[solvine]

QQ is unlikely, and could be looking at 22/66, so i probably shove against a standard player. But as you said he was passive its tough to call, shoving isnt too bad imo

[five4suited]

I'd make his range 22, 66, Q2s, Q3s and Q6s. I don't think he bets the river with the decent Q you mentioned. You're 50-50 against that range and since he's so passive I call here because he has to see the 4-straight.

[SABR42]

I don't think he can show up with a 3, unless he had Q3 suited and backdoored it. But that's pretty unlikely.

He should call me with sets and two pairs (because it's unlikely for me to have a 3 as well). I lose to QQ and 66, but beat 22 and some random crap like Q6s.

Anyway, I shoved, he called with 66 and MHING.