After playing terrible, how much to value bet?

Soultwister · #1 10-21-2007, 12:18 AM

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Profiles and Stacks:

Hero ($60.40) 21.6/14.9/3.7 (222)

UTG+1 ($50.70) 18.8/9.0/1.4 (133)

CO ($23.15) 53.4/1.2/0.6 (161)

BTN ($110.00) 29.2/19.8/3.3 (202)

SB ($89.75) 12.2/11.0/2.5 (82)

BB ($185.05) 21.9/17.2/22.0 (151)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, BTN raises to $4.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75, CO calls $3.75

I minraise with a lot of hands as opening move EP after reading PNLH. Here it is because my stack is relatively small and I want to get better implied odds should I get 3-bet by one of the larger stacks. This worked out as planned.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($15, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $15, Hero calls $15, CO folds

I normally lead out here or check-raise to the size of the pot to get villain pot-stuck if he holds at least TPTK. But since villain has a c-bet turn % of nearly 100%, I decided against it and wait for the turn.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

So with his c-bet turn % of nearly 100% plan was to check-call and put the rest in on river when he would be pot-stuck and also earn some more from non-TP hands. Obviously this failed.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
Hero goes all-in $40.65, BTN says "can i bet 100 dollars oyu have 44", 1 fold

Final Pot: ($45)

Hero wins $42.75 ( won +$23.00 )
CO lost -$4.75
BTN lost -$19.75

Now for the river, because he did not bet turn my plan failed and I have to extract what value I have. I figured my best bet would be to just shove the rest in which made sense with current pot size and hope to get paid off. Obviously, as played, villain is much more worried about my hand strength and folded.

In situations like these, is it better to just make a sucker-bet on the river of half pot or less? I failed at reaching my target implied odds here while a sucker bet would at least accomplish that.

Obviously my flop and turn play was nearly completely because of trusting PAHUD too much, but I think I really messed up on the river. How much would you bet here?

Khaos4k · #2 10-21-2007, 12:29 AM

You should simply not get to the river like this. With villain having a high cbet% you should be looking at a CR instead of hoping he bets turn as well. If he holds the king he's calling a CR. If he's not, he's folding anyways. This will create a nice big pot for you, that will get you all-in on the turn.

Hell, a check-min-raise may even be fine here. Creates a $75 pot on the turn which is an easy shove for your last $25.

Antinome · #3 10-21-2007, 12:51 AM

Button's remark should tell you exactly how transparent this line is. Just .... terrible. But you knew that, right?

Your river bet sizing was the first thing you did right in the hand.

Soultwister · #4 10-21-2007, 01:00 AM

I agree Anti, which is also why I generally never take this line with a set OOP. Also, with his high turn c-bet %, I think his check here shows he actually holds a very strong hand, TPTK at the minimum, since I'd expect a second barrel from him with most his other holdings.

If for simplicity we assume villain always holds TPTK or better here, AND is suspicious because of the transparency of my play, is the river betsize still correct?

Bren · #5 10-21-2007, 01:06 AM

Does anyone else hate the miniraise utg? Aren't you asking to get 3 bet by a lot more hands that don't give you the neccessary implied odds. ie you create a lot more situations that you either have to give up on the flop, or when you flop a set villian doesn't have enough of a hand to go with you? This would be even more pronounced playing out of position as you are here.

just a thought but my 3bettting range here would be a lot wider and considering most pots are taken down with a cbet, it's been profitable esp. with the occaisonal squeeze oppurtuntity. That said it's not over that many hands and maybe I'm due to start spewing money.

OP do you miniraise evry hand you open or just the pp's?
It just looks like he turned his hand face up PF....

Antinome · #6 10-21-2007, 01:09 AM

I think it's pretty binary.. either he's paying attention, and knows where you are and will fold, or he's not, and thinks you're FOS and will call. I think a push encourages him to think you're FOS so it is the best move here by far. Maybe he makes a crying call a little more often if you bet like 15.... but I don't think it shifts his call% enough to make that worth considering.

Hail Eris · #7 10-21-2007, 01:21 AM

Villain can say whatever he wants, but I'd be schocked if he folds AK here. If you bet much less you might get a crying call out of QQ/JJ, but it's not like he's never getting stacked by this line.

If he did have AK, you really need to stop minraise/calling in EP.

Antinome · #8 10-21-2007, 01:22 AM

Oh, I hate the pf minraise too, but I try not to criticize preflop play much, since it usually falls into the small mistake category... which can usually be redeemed by solid postflop play, traded for big mistakes by opponents. If OP wants to develop a game that includes UTG minraises, I suspect it could be done.... ABC poker would be a lot easier, but some of us insist on the path less traveled.

Of course, small mistakes can also easily degenerate into big mistakes, as we saw here.

Soultwister · #9 10-21-2007, 03:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OP do you miniraise evry hand you open or just the pp's?
It just looks like he turned his hand face up PF....

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on stack sizes, I've been experimenting with it a bit since I've read Professional NoLimit Hold'em.

No, I don't do this just with small pocket pairs, but also with high pocket pairs, AQ and AK. The strategy behind it is to avoid getting in tough situations with TPTK kind of hands when you buy in for 100BB. And with hands that generally make TPTK hands, if I'm not 3-bet but called, that means I will try to play for a small pot, especially OOP.

When you open up to 4 or 5BB the pot after the preflop action will be around 1/13th of the remaining stack sizes if you get called by one person. As the betting progresses, you'll often end up having over 30% of your stack invested on the turn where you are not sure yet if you want to commit to your hand if you get raised or called.

Yet if the pot after the preflop action is about 1/6th of your remaining stack, it becomes much easier to commit, and to get your opponent committed. In position, you can get there by 3-betting, but OOP, you need some help to get there since you can't simply open up to 10BB.

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, I hate the pf minraise too

[/ QUOTE ]
That is the best part, most people hate it so decide they need to 3-bet here with a huge range.

The same applies to 3-betting yourself. When someone opens up for a standard 4BB, I do not make a standard 3-bet to pot sized or thrice their opening size anymore, but size my 3-bets based on their opening range and stack size. So when we are 200BB deep I'll 3-bet to a different size than if we were 100 or 50BB deep. This also really annoys opponents [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I've only tried this SPR-based preflop play for the last two days, but the results are interesting to say the least (9 buyins up in my last 3k hands). When I read PNLH I thought Matt Flynn/Ed Miller/Sunny Mehta were full of [censored] or on weed brownies when they wrote their book, completely going against the important concepts of 6-max NL, but this unconventional play actually seems to have some merits.

And yes, PNLH actually advocates open limping or minraising in EP even with AQ/AK/QQ-AA etc when you have around 100BB effective stacksizes. It may sound silly, I admit, but as long as it keeps showing a good winrate for me, I'll keep experimenting with it.

Also, I think a key factor here is also that it leads to more postflop play for small pots. The above hand, I admit, is one I butchered, but the profit I lack from standard preflop aggression seems to be more than made up for by small pots with marginal hands that actually see a river or showdown.

Bren · #10 10-21-2007, 06:18 AM

I'm really curious as to what others think about this, my instinctive reaction is that we lower expectation, in that we would be playing multiway (3+ players) pots more, and playing 3 bet pots more often against a wider range making flop decisions quite blurry. Are you using this strategy in a purely "fit or fold" manner? Does this stretegy involve you playing tighter postflop, or are you using the higher frequency of small pots to showdown mediocre holdings (which may be good) more often without risking a larger proportion of your stack?