Overpair facing heat, I figure he has me beat

iheartponeez · #1 10-20-2007, 05:08 PM

Villain is a standard TAG:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($11.70)
UTG ($6.05)
MP ($6.25)
Button ($12.25)
Hero ($16.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.5, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $1.3, MP folds, Hero calls $0.80.

Flop: ($2.70) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.70) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $4.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $6.70

So, my thinking was: Call the c-bet since you have the overpair and he might be reraising with AK or AQ, then when he came out strong I figured he had me beat with TT-AA.

Should I have folded preflop (I think not, for set value)?

But once I didn't hit my set on the flop, should I have realized I was beat and not bothered calling the continuation bet? I think so. I think I should have committed to calling only for set value, and folding without a set, even on a rag board like this one.

Agree? Disagree?

hendal · #2 10-20-2007, 05:11 PM

Play for set value you must have the option to win about 11 times you put into the pot. So here that must be somethin like 14.50. Villain doesnt have it so that is -ev.

iheartponeez · #3 10-20-2007, 05:12 PM

Why 11? Don't you hit about 1 out of 8.5? He had more than 8.5x his raise behind him.

Profish2285 · #4 10-20-2007, 05:22 PM

You do not win everytime you hit a set, and you do not get his stack everytime you hit a set either.

iheartponeez · #5 10-20-2007, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You do not win everytime you hit a set, and you do not get his stack everytime you hit a set either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Part A I agree with, but the percentage of set-over-set is small enough to not consider entirely. Do you think it happens more than, say, 1/20 times? If not then it's 1 in 9 rather than 8.5, not a big difference.

Part B I disagree with in this case. In a 3-bet pot, I think stacks are likely to get in the middle. Maybe not always, but often enough.

But this is only my issue with your statement, I think I agree that folding preflop was a better play.

Profish2285 · #6 10-20-2007, 05:32 PM

In a 3-bet pot youre much more likely to get his stack, yes thats true, you think its even 50/50 though? Idk, maybe I am running bad, but I certainly do not think I stack people half the time I flop sets. The odds are there so that it covers the overlay of times you do not stack him as well as the times you lose. Also, as far as the set over set thing, your set can lose in other ways too. Such as flushes and straights.

TTStrangler · #7 10-20-2007, 05:40 PM

Ok, calling the 3bet pre flop may have put in you in a bad spot here, but the raise was so small it was almost a min raise. Although I don't know the math here, I'd say if nothing else, the size the raise has surely given you the odds to call the 3bet.

After that I'm really bad in these spots, let's see what the other members of the congregation say.

TTStrangler · #8 10-20-2007, 05:45 PM

Ok, I'm going out on a limb here to say. Call flop, lead turn. That's the only way you'll know where your at here. I think checking the turn to see if Villain fires again is too weak. This may be viewed as spew, but after calling the 3bet you can't just play 99 for set value. If Villain calls or raises my lead on the turn then I'm done.

bknollenberg · #9 10-20-2007, 05:58 PM

if you flat call the flop you have to be ready to either c/r the turn, lead the turn, or something. but i don't even like flat calling the flop. you have no clue where you are and what card is going to come that you're going to feel good about? a 9 obv, but what about the other like 40 possibilities. you're basically making check/crying calls the entire way.

bknollenberg · #10 10-20-2007, 06:00 PM

now that i look at it again, raise. that line is weak really often. that turn card is perfect to put a raise in. even if he has a hand like JJ, he may very well call your turn raise and check river, giving you pot control and going to showdown with a hand you want to showdown on that board. obviously i haven't played with this guy, but bet sizing gives away hands more than anything, especially at these levels.