5/10 NL live need reasons to lead or not lead turn

McStinky · #1 10-17-2007, 08:18 PM

Foxwoods 5/10 NL, effective stacks 2000. I am in the big blind with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and villain is straddling. I don't have a great read on him except that he is probably a weak loose passive player.

One limper, I come in, and straddler checks. Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I lead out for 40, villain calls, and other guy folds.

Pot has 140 in it. Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I lead out for 80. I figure I can make Jx fold and can get a call out of hands containing a low pair plus a big diamond. I am also protecting my hand against straight draws. If he has the flush or a K I am in trouble, but I don't think that is a big enough part of his range that I should slow down. What do you think?

If he calls the turn bet, I plan to check-fold the river because I don't see him betting with enough hands I beat.

jlocdog · #2 10-17-2007, 09:46 PM

I don't think straddler has to have much to call your flop bet. Even as little as the Adx may suffice.

Saying that, I believe he can show up by the river with a ton of stuff we beat. So either you underrate or I overrate our showdown value. And in doing so, you turn your hand into a bluff, while I prefer to induce for value.

McStinky · #3 10-17-2007, 09:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think straddler has to have much to call your flop bet. Even as little as the Adx may suffice.

Saying that, I believe he can show up by the river with a ton of stuff we beat. So either you underrate or I overrate our showdown value. And in doing so, you turn your hand into a bluff, while I prefer to induce for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think I was turning my hand into a bluff. There are worse hands that will call me on the turn, specifically flush draws.

jlocdog · #4 10-17-2007, 10:53 PM

When you say,

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If he calls the turn bet, I plan to check-fold the river because I don't see him betting with enough hands I beat.

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it makes me think of your line in a bluffy fashion. Maybe its because your line allows 2 streets of value, while c/c turn opens up the possibility for 3.

edit to add- He is a weak, loose, straddler. He will look to protect the money he puts in to the pot as if it were his own. Throw in the fact that he will look at this as a spot of holding position over you and 'needing' to be aggressive because of this and I feel he will make poor bluffs or be too passive too often in this spot. At least thats my read given live experience...

fslexcduck · #5 10-17-2007, 10:55 PM

i don't mind this but i would lead bigger if you want him to fold Jx, like full pot style or more

raze · #6 10-18-2007, 02:24 AM

If you're going to bet the turn for your reasons stated, bet something like 115-140. Weak-passive is still going to call with a big diamond, and I'm not sure he's going to fold a Jack for 80, especially if he has even a medium diamond.

chromerims · #7 10-18-2007, 02:45 AM

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i don't mind this but i would lead bigger if you want him to fold Jx, like full pot style or more

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ya betting 80 is like checking only it is costing you money. Just bet big or check call then evaluate river. If I were you I woulda needed to see him bluff a busted flush earlier to call a river bet.

chromerims · #8 10-18-2007, 02:48 AM

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5/10 NL live need reasons to lead or not lead FLOP

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also, FYP

soah · #9 10-18-2007, 03:18 AM

it's not fixing if it was correct in the first place