How many outs do I have/folding equity? [NLTRN]

[Kalledrengen]

This is from a $22 HU SNG, 15 hands into the tournament. He has played a bit aggresive in the past 15 hands but nothing extreme.
My feeling is that he has *something* on the flop and that he probably is not on a stone cold bluff, I could be wrong though.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
2 players
Kalledrengen: 790
Villain: 2210
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) Kalledrengen is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Kalledrengen calls t20 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t60)</font>, BB checks.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t80, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t80</font>, Kalledrengen calls t80 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t160)</font>.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t240, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t120</font>, Kalledrengen..?

Can it in any way be justified to shove here if we assume that villain at least have a draw here?

Lets see how many outs I'm likely to have. 9 clubs, 3 eights and 2 fives. 14 outs that give me either a flush, trips or two pair. If either of those hands are enough to win I would win 46/14 = 1 in 3,28 times. Meaning I'm a 3-1 underdog.

This is however only if my 14 outs are indeed full outs. How would you discount outs here?
I'm also a bit unsure how to weight the possibility that he has 2 pair or better against the possibility that he is on a draw or perhaps even a stone cold bluff.

How big of a folding equity should I have in the situation where all of my 14 outs are good before it is +EV to shove?

Given the stack size, blinds, the vague description of villain over 15 hands, the possibility of his possible holdings vs your outs, what is your prefered line here?

Thanks

[alavet]

i think we dont have any decent fold equity here
for me, any J/K hand calls you
your all in seems very strange. if you have king you wouldnt shove, now he should just realise how good his kicker if he has a jack, and with comparing to your strange move, he may discount your kicker and call

in that situation i prefer shove on river after his check or less than 1/3 pot bet. you have enough odds to just call.

[lennytheduck]

If you want to run a bluff raise the turn to ~300 and shove the river. Opponents are always going to think you have naked clubs if you shove this turn.

[xSCWx]

I think the players at this level either put you on "king" or "bluff." In my experience they don't seem to know of anything in between.

I'd probably just call then put a huge bet on the river if I hit anything.

[Kalledrengen]

I did shove here as you might have guessed, got called by K4o and lost the hand when river came blank.
I guess I felt I should either fold or shove because if I called and missed my draw I would be left with an ever shorter stack than I already had which didn't sound good in my head at the time.

But I see your point in just calling here to try and hit, or try to make my bluff make more sense and use both turn and river to execute it.

Appriciate your replies, thanks a lot.