I has it. You has it?

urbanati · #1 10-12-2007, 11:22 AM

Villain is 45/22/1.4 in only 40 hands so no more reads at all...
Comments on every street please!
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $214.25
urbanati: $415.70
SB: $76.00
BB: $123.50

Pre-flop: (4 players) urbanati is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, urbanati raises to $9, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
UTG bets $20, urbanati calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($61, 2 players)
UTG bets $20, urbanati calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($101, 2 players)
UTG is all-in $165.25, urbanati...

Suigin406 · #2 10-12-2007, 11:24 AM

ugh, it's like he was pricing himself for a draw with the weak turn bet...it's possible he could have a straight, but not likely from UTG, even for this kid...

anyone for raising flop??

[censored], this is hard, but i call this, this could be a [censored] play by a big PP

tubasteve · #3 10-12-2007, 11:24 AM

no way can you fold on the river. flop is usually a raise for me, but turn is goot.

urbanati · #4 10-12-2007, 11:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
flop is usually a raise for me

[/ QUOTE ]
Even against a passive? I know it is not a large sample though...

tubasteve · #5 10-12-2007, 11:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
flop is usually a raise for me

[/ QUOTE ]
Even against a passive? I know it is not a large sample though...

[/ QUOTE ]

if i had a bare flush draw, i would just call here, but i think our equity is high enough to raise this one. since we have a pair and the board texture is favorable, worst case scenario he has 3 hands out of his very wide range which are 33, 55, and JJ. Against every other hand in his range we are at least 40% to win (against two pair), and against TPTK we are 49% to win. the total pokerstove vs this type of range (which in real life probably doesnt include J3/J5) is below:

Board: Jc 5s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.150% 45.74% 00.41% 28981 259.50 { 7c5c }
Hand 1: 53.850% 53.44% 00.41% 33860 259.50 { JJ+, 55, 33, AcKc, AcQc, AJs, KJs, J5s, 6c4c, 53s, AJo, KJo, J5o, 53o }

if this is his stacking off range, then we obv must have some FE and theres dead money in the pot so raising is hugely +EV

tubasteve · #6 10-12-2007, 11:42 AM

also, for someone with vpip of 44 i thought AF of 1.4 was pretty normal, not too passive but not too aggro. basically a straightforward player that donks with TP because hes got the NUTS but also likes to make moves when he puts you on AK and stuff. im kinda stoned hope that came across ok.