**NLCS**

Caldarooni · #1 10-11-2007, 03:46 PM

Game one tonight.

Francis +120 v Webb -128 or so, and o/u 7.5

A question I have if you like Webb tonight. Why bet the favorite in game one when the same team is a dog for the series but will surely become the favorite in the series if they win game 1? Obviously you would have to hedge after game one to make sense of my question, but can anyone explain the logic?

And who do you like?

Caldarooni · #2 10-11-2007, 03:52 PM

Currently the series price is apprx: Colorado -135 and AZ +125.

If Az wins game 1 what do you think the series price will be? What if Az loses game 1?

J.A.Sucker · #3 10-11-2007, 04:24 PM

I agree these lines look very strange. I think Francis is at +120 is very nice value.

crockpot · #4 10-11-2007, 04:59 PM

might want to rename the thread so it doesn't look so obsolete?

Caldarooni · #5 10-11-2007, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
might want to rename the thread so it doesn't look so obsolete?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Too late.

Jazzy3113 · #6 10-11-2007, 05:07 PM

I dont bet alot of my roll on baseball, and my overall record lifetime would be something like 500-490, so I am like a slight winner.

I always like the home team with a better starting pitcher. Webb is a bona fide ace and hes at home. I like the 'Backs.

thing85 · #7 10-11-2007, 05:11 PM

*cue the d-bag 2+2 sharps to rip on square logic*

Jazzy3113 · #8 10-11-2007, 05:38 PM

well, i feel that for baseball you have to take a very insular view. And I believe that the starting pitcher is the most important piece in a playoff game.

Webb is the better pitcher so I like 1 unit on him. Its easy when there is such a large pitching discrepancy. But go ahead take Francis. I dare you.

hedgie43 · #9 10-11-2007, 05:54 PM

I realize that I am not the sharpest poster on this forum, but you are just embarrassing yourself Jazzy.

centris · #10 10-11-2007, 06:03 PM

Here is a thought:

5dimes: Francis BB+K

u6.5 -105
o6.5 -125

bodog: Francis BB+K
u7 -110
o7 -130

Let's assume that 5dimes line is sharper. Then the true line would be at -110/+110. So they think there is approximatly a 47.62% chance he is at 6 or fewer K+BB. Assuming K+BB has a Poisson distribution we get a Poisson distrubiton of mean approixmately 6.83. Using this we can estimate the probability he has 0,1,2,.. K+BB.

With that estimate the u7 -110 on Bodog has value.

If you are inclined to believe that the Bodog line is sharper you could do the same analysis and it would instruct you to take o6.5 -125 at 5dimes.

Or you could take both to and hope to hit the middle at 7.