is it time to bluff?

SuperSnort · #1 10-02-2007, 04:21 PM

player seems pretty good not that loose or tight but is aggressive and is up a bit for sessssh. i think reraise preflop is almost always AA, as we have just stopped playing 4 handed as people are sitting out and he isnt in HU mode.

what do you think also of all streets, i really want feedback on river, but i am welcome to any criticism good or bad on my play here. thx

Full Tilt Poker Game #3736115825: Table Coburn (6 max) - $1/$2 - Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 16:07:54 ET - 2007/10/02
Seat 1: whatariver1 ($178.45)
Seat 2: TECHCHILLS1 ($200)
Seat 3: scuba_joe_123 ($0), is sitting out
Seat 4: TakeEmAll222 ($380), is sitting out
Seat 5: brownfish1 ($71.25), is sitting out
Seat 6: Snort4eva ($453.80)
Snort4eva posts the small blind of $1
whatariver1 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Snort4eva [8h 6s Tc 6h]
Snort4eva raises to $6
whatariver1 raises to $18
Snort4eva calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Kh Kd Qs]
whatariver1 bets $18
Snort4eva calls $18
*** TURN *** [Kh Kd Qs] [3c]
whatariver1 checks
Snort4eva bets $36
whatariver1 calls $36
*** RIVER *** [Kh Kd Qs 3c] [Js]
whatariver1 checks
Snort4eva has 15 seconds left to act
Snort4eva <font color="green"> ??? </font>

gordo16 · #2 10-02-2007, 04:32 PM

I mean, I'm not really sure what you were doing at any point in this hand. If you are going to raise 66T8 and then call a re-raise with it, I would really suggest just mucking with that flop. I can understand setting up the bluff, but with literally zero outs (the 6 is questionable) I don't think that this is a great spot to do it. The flat call on the turn does look a bit like stubborn aces and I think that given your turn agression, it would be correct to continue-bet bluff on this river. Then again, he may be slowplaying a flopped boat, so take the advice with a grain of salt. Realistically, there is no reason to get into this mess of a hand, and in the future, if you are going to attempt to set up a bluff with a really loose flop call, make sure that you at least have some reasonable outs.

Burdzthewurd · #3 10-02-2007, 04:33 PM

No, I wouldn't try it against an unknown who might call with KKA or KKT, and could be trapping with KKKQQ as well. He has $106 left and the pot is $144 so it'd be tough for him to fold a fair amount of Kxxx combos with less than a PSB left.

Perestroika · #4 10-02-2007, 04:44 PM

Unless you are frequently in these situations I think river is a MUST fire. You should not be doing this often so when you decide to do it I think you have to fire this. If it works 33% of the time its neutral EV, and his line is definitely suggestive of a weaker hand. Of course some percentage of the time he has a FH or strong king but ya know....

Elrazor · #5 10-02-2007, 05:15 PM

i cant understand why you have called the the flop and then bet the turn if you have got him on AAxx? do you think he will give up AAxx on the turn for a half pot bet on this board? or even a full bet?

he obviously has some kind of made hand better than yours so betting is the only way you can win here, gl!

sqwisssssss · #6 10-02-2007, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, I'm not really sure what you were doing at any point in this hand. If you are going to raise 66T8 and then call a re-raise with it, I would really suggest just mucking with that flop. I can understand setting up the bluff, but with literally zero outs (the 6 is questionable) I don't think that this is a great spot to do it. The flat call on the turn does look a bit like stubborn aces and I think that given your turn agression, it would be correct to continue-bet bluff on this river. Then again, he may be slowplaying a flopped boat, so take the advice with a grain of salt. Realistically, there is no reason to get into this mess of a hand, and in the future, if you are going to attempt to set up a bluff with a really loose flop call, make sure that you at least have some reasonable outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elrazor · #7 10-02-2007, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If it works 33% of the time its neutral EV

[/ QUOTE ]

is this right? does villan not have to fold 50% of the time for Hero to be neutral EV, with the flip side being Villan only needs to be right 33% of the time for him to be =EV?

Ribbo · #8 10-02-2007, 06:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it works 33% of the time its neutral EV

[/ QUOTE ]

is this right? does villan not have to fold 50% of the time for Hero to be neutral EV, with the flip side being Villan only needs to be right 33% of the time for him to be =EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's $106 to win $144, that's all villain has left. But yes, if it was a pot sized bet it would have to work 50% of the time. It's 33% to call a pot sized bet, but 50% to make it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

In this case it has to work 42.4% of the time.

SuperSnort · #9 10-03-2007, 04:29 PM

thx for feedack.

in the end i timed down a bit then bet 78ish$. he took his time but didnt use time bank and folded. he then told me he folded AA1010! so not bad

sqwisssssss · #10 10-03-2007, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
thx for feedack.

in the end i timed down a bit then bet 78ish$. he took his time but didnt use time bank and folded. he then told me he folded AA1010! so not bad

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i think villan was lying.