50 NL , does this look like a set?

llamage · #1 10-01-2007, 02:52 PM

no history with villain, he just sat down,
I folded this because his turn bet indicates a lot of strength...is this too nitty?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($57.50)
Hero ($96.15)
CO ($50.85)
Button ($128.70)
SB ($48.50)
BB ($66.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, CO raises to $9, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $18, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $22.75

Chicago Twister · #2 10-01-2007, 02:56 PM

With such a low board he could also have an overpair like 88-JJ. Plus the 5 coming on the turn reduces the number of sets he could have. I'd push AA-QQ here, fold the rest.

AZplaya · #3 10-01-2007, 02:58 PM

meh, I don't tend to give unknown all that much credit and this could easily be 88-JJ. Flip a coin, but if you fold be prepared to puke when you discover he's a spewtard.

n4rf · #4 10-01-2007, 03:00 PM

You didn't necessarily scream "I HAVE AN OVERPAIR" with your raise since there was no 3bet/4bet. He could put you on AK or AQ etc, not AA.

That check on the river made you look ultra weak and I think it was way too conservative to just fold.

llamage · #5 10-01-2007, 03:06 PM

After sitting at the table some more, hes shown hes a decent TAG. I think I made the right decision. This may be 88-JJ, but the I think he would've 3bet in position with 10 10 - JJ. The only hands im beating are 88-99. I think I made the right decision here.

nutstoyou · #6 10-01-2007, 03:07 PM

It looks to me more like an overpair than a set. Since you have AA you could have been in good shape. With no flush or straight draws, a lot of players with a set would have just called your flop bet, then raised you on the turn if you bet again or bet the turn if you didn't.

I would have called the turn bet and check called the river.

AZplaya · #7 10-01-2007, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
After sitting at the table some more, hes shown hes a decent TAG. I think I made the right decision. This may be 88-JJ, but the I think he would've 3bet in position with 10 10 - JJ. The only hands im beating are 88-99. I think I made the right decision here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't play PS $50 but I know on FTP assuming an unknown is a solid tag who 3 bets in pozz and doesn't felt light is lol. If you assume you made the right play because he has now shown to be a solid player is results oriented.

Nick Royale · #8 10-01-2007, 03:21 PM

I 3-bet the flop and get it in.

Fwiw that turn card was good for us, given the flop call I shove the turn.

DaycareInferno · #9 10-01-2007, 03:26 PM

this is an ovepair/7x/draw much more often than it is a set. on the flop, any pair 7 or better is going to want to protect themselves from overcards on the turn. its also a decent flop to bluff, because its no help to most of your raising range. his turn bet means nothing, because 90% of the time when you check the turn there you're going to get a bet out of anything that raised you on the flop, especially with such a brick there.

kurto · #10 10-01-2007, 04:13 PM

With absolutely no read you hae to add a HUGE amount of possibilities here, from overpairs, to the nutstraight, two pair.. to complete bluffs.

I mean... if this guy is a 70/2/.5 kind of player, he could have the nutstraight.

If he's a 12/3/.5 -- a set is looking more likely

if he's a 28/4/8 kind of player... he could have any one pair or a gutshot straight draw.

I agree with others that he will often autobet regardless of what he has when you check the turn.

that being said, I tend to be more conservative prior to getting a read or some numbers on a player. That's a very coordinated board. I don't know that you're ahead MOST of the time here against MOST players since I think most micro players aren't raising most players with midpairs.