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#1
09-30-2007, 11:51 PM
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River decision
Villain is The Girth, a regular, 21/18
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $1/$2 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $65.60 Hero: $198.60 CO: $249.50 Button: $443.75 SB: $337.55 BB: $237.20 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, 3 folds, BB calls. Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players) BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, BB calls. Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($39, 2 players) BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $39</font>, BB calls. River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($117, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $70</font>. What do you do? 
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#3
09-30-2007, 11:55 PM
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Re: River decision
id just call it, if he has a worse hand its unlikely he'll put in anymore money anyways. if there was a chance he had a set, id say shove. but given his flop and turn action, that seems unlikely. i vote for a call.
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#5
09-30-2007, 11:58 PM
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Re: River decision
Shove, a flush/straight are both less likely than 2 pair, just calling is missing value here.
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#6
10-01-2007, 12:02 AM
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Re: River decision
ah, so it is.
shove is fine i guess. its so close EV wise. he has to call with a worse hand more than 50% of the time for a shove to be correct. dunno this reg, but if he isn't terrible, i dont see how he could have a hand to call with unless its a flush. sets/2pr raise that turn everytime dont they?
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#7
10-01-2007, 12:06 AM
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Re: River decision
[ QUOTE ]
Shove, a flush/straight are both less likely than 2 pair [/ QUOTE ] what 2 pair hands show up here that dont raise the flop or turn? (he didnt river 2 pair) and aces up hands seem unlikely since op has 2 of them.
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#8
10-01-2007, 12:09 AM
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Re: River decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Shove, a flush/straight are both less likely than 2 pair [/ QUOTE ] what 2 pair hands show up here that dont raise the flop or turn? (he didnt river 2 pair) and aces up hands seem unlikely since op has 2 of them. [/ QUOTE ] Meh people play weird. But OP has the best hand the large majority of the time, and I think that the villian will call with everything he bet for value with, it's only a bit more. The only thing we lose too is like KQss,JTss,9Tss. Though 9Tss/KQss prob don't flat call turn.
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#10
10-01-2007, 12:12 AM
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Re: River decision
fair enough.
i honestly dont think a shove is bad. i just am struggling to come up with a plausible holding for this guy. who knows...maybe he had a set and decided to get fancy. and its better to err on the side of aggression id say...shove it then. but prepare to look at a weird flush often.
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