Time to move up to $22's?

[frankx99x]

I'm at 20% ROI over my last 119 $11 SNG's. Is thissamplre size large enough so as to consider myself skilled enough to move up to $22's without taking bankroll into consideration?

[Q..]

Hm id recommend going with at least 300+ samplesize.

[HajiShirazu]

It isn't a big enough sample size but if you think you are better than the players at the 22's (only an honest self-evaluation and lots of play at that level can tell you) then you should move up anyway.

[sence25]

119 is a far too small sample size.
I ran 3x% over my first 400 and 5% over the second 400 at FTP.
But if your bankroll is big enough, you should give it a try.

[vers]

Basically you ran hot. If your bankroll can stand a downswing at the 22s, take a shot.

[frankx99x]

I'm going to continue at the 11's for awhile. thanx for the advice all

[DannyOcean_]

what is considered a solid sample size? I have almost 200 sng under mah belt now, but it sounds like this isn't significant much...

Is 200 sng's at 10% roi a good indicator that you can beat the level, or could it just be running hot?

Also, i know this might be in the sticky, but what's a typical BR? I don't mind moving up and down levels based on fluctuations.

[PujolsOfPokr]

While 100 or 200 games is not enough of a sample size to determine your 'true ROI', you can still infer some things from your sample.

For example, if you have a double-digit positive ROI over more than 100 games at a given stake, I think you are safe to say (with a 95% confidence level) that you are a 'winner' are those stakes. By this, all I mean is that your 'true ROI' at those stakes should be positive. However, you still can't know your true ROI until you have played 2-3K tourneys at the same level (and even that won't give you our true ROI, just a very close approximation).

Now, this doesn't mean that you should move up stakes simply because your true ROI seems to be positive. This is for two reasons:

First, the fact your observed ROI over 100+ games is 20% at the $11 level means that you can likely beat that level in the long run, but it is entirely possible that your 'true' edge is only between 3-5% (due to the fact that the small sample can be misleading). So while you are techincally a 'winner' at a given buy-in level whether you are +20% ROI or +3% ROI, your risk of ruin is exponentially higher with a small single-digit edge.

Now, the second reason you don't want to rely on your sample to move up stakes is because it may be misleading. Sure, if your 'true ROI' is at 20% or more at the $11 level, you can probably beat the $22 tables. But all we've established so far from your sample is that you are likely to be a winner at the the $11 level. If you are indeed a winner at the $11 level, say with a true ROI between 3-5%, it is a lot harder to determine if you would have a positive true ROI at the $22 level. If your true ROI is 20% at the $11 you are likely positive ROI at the $22 as well. But if your true ROI at the $11 level is say 3%, it is a lot harder to predict whether or not you would have a positive true ROI at the $22 level.

Hope this helps a little bit! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DeuceSeven]

Check the faq for a good sample size. Since I don't get the volume that full time sng players get, I move up when I have 70+ buy ins to start the month and move down if I hit 60 buy ins. If I evaluate that I'm not ready to move up but have the bank roll I stay where I'm at.

[vers]

Play 500-1000 and then re-evaluate.