€15 River question

[mr.spam]

We usually play STT with our group, but we organized things a bit bigger and we have ourselves a 2 FR MTT with 20 people. Starting stack is t10000 with blinds t25/t50 (pretty deep yeah).

We're down to 11, one more before final table. I'm at a very aggressive table who has lost 6 members in total so they had to transfer a shortstack from the other table who worked his way up again by winning 3 flips in a row, five-handed at my table at the moment.

SB puts in t100 small blind.
Hero puts in t200 big blind.
UTG (stack around t27500) raises to t650.
CO folds.
Button (stack around t13500) calls t650.
SB folds.
Hero (stack around t24000) calls for t450 more with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot t2050).

Hero checks.
UTG bets t1000.
Button calls t1000.
Hero calls t1000.

Turn A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (pot t5050).

Hero checks.
UTG bets t1500.
Button calls t1500.
Hero calls t1500.

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot t9550).

Hero checks.
UTG checks.
Button bets t5000.
Hero ???

Button: Lifetime degenerate to be honest, worst player at our table by far. Thinks any seven or any 88+ is the nuts here. He has exactly one black chip behind (t5000), five reds (t100's) and a whole bunch of white ones (t25's, I didn't want to ask for a count since he shuffled them over and over and I couldn't count them), a total of t5900-t6000.
UTG: Very agressive 26-year-old player. He has been raising and reraising alot the last two orbits with his big stack, but doesn't bet two streets in a row against two villains with trash. After the turn-bet, he has KK-TT imo. He has me covered with something like t3500 (SB and CO have a bit above average stack I believe).

What do I do? If I shove, I get UTG to fold probably (even his kings, yes) and I get the remaining of button's stack 90% of the time and we advance to the final table.
If I just call, I'm pretty sure (also around 90%) that UTG will overcall. Either way, I'm going to have a big stack, but do I want to eliminate a player and go to the final table now, with 5 more big blinds, or do I take hyper-agressive UTG to value-town? I consider him at least with the top 5 of the remaining players.


Note about myself: I don't bully that much with a big stack in front of me, I wait for higher EV+ situations than most people would.

[Tackleberry]

I would have made a moderate raise on the turn. This makes it much easier for you to ship it in on the river.

Anyway - as played I would raise (not shove) the river, let´s say about 11k. This leaves you 11k which looks like you don´t want to bust in this spot. And if UTG has a hand - he will probably call.

By the way - nice hand, sir!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[levAA]

It's close but I would call.

If you raise, Button will call most of the time, but maybe fold.

If you just call UTG might also fold, but will call sometimes, and if he really has KK he might raise.

So I think calling here is more profitable with UTG behind, but with these stack-sizes it's very close.

[Tooorero86]

i lol hard,show my cards to SB, insta-shove then and try to look like i´m very strong [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[wizard]

I have to go with your read of hyper-aggressive and just call the river hoping for a push and a call back to you. At the very least, you will get 5000 more of the chips from the tough player and have a big stack to terrorize the short handed table that will still be 5 handed. May all your decisions be extraction problems with the nuts. NICE hand.

[tomek322]

LMAO at calling...

I lead this turn, just call the raise and go for a c/r on the river.

[wizard]

Leading the turn may be a good move but, as played, the river play is the question. This is a great example of when to play the player and not the cards. You have a very aggressive but good player yet to act and an idiot leading on every street. The good player will probably fold to a river raise and even the button who calls everything has got to smell something. I mean really, what does check call-check call-check raise mean to you? Slow will get you more money than fast in this situation. Be patient.

[mr.spam]

Ok, thanks for the responses. I didn't figure to raise/open bet the turn for value at any point, just because I was sure UTG was going to bet out the river again for like 3000-ish and I would be last to act at that point, and could raise and get at least one of the two to call.

As played I flipped a coin (by looking at the last digit of my watch lol) and ended up calling, and got the overcall...