$114: TT vs overpush

[darinvg]

Villain is alright but as you can see not great. My notes say he's an overpusher. Can I get involved. This shouldn't really be QQ+ right?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1560)
UTG+1 (t1245)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1050)
Hero (t1825)
CO (t1610)
Button (t1730)
SB (t1095)
BB (t1875)

Preflop: Hero is in MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to t1510 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero?</font>

[Little John]

my first guess is fold, he is pushing from co+3, so unless he really sucks a call is not too good.

ok, ran it in the wiz:

put overpusher on 88-JJ, ATs-AQs, AQ-AK

put the people behind you on QQ+ AK

the wiz has this as +.55%. this is obviously really senstive to overpushers range. i have 3 hands in his range that you dominate and only one hand that dominates you.


also, if anyone behind you overcalls with JJ that will hurt you.

comments on ranges?

[RexWoo]

This does not look like a good spot to me, except if you know he is raising standard with QQ+.

[suzzer99]

Very unlikely he has QQ+, even JJ. This is sooooo often something like AQ or 66-TT. And you have to knock something like 10% of the ev off for villians behind you waking up. I think I call but I like to gamble.

[Q..]

With optimism i dont think you can expect over 55%, and in reality im not sure it would be over 50%, and if its close, guys behind you with QQ+ would make this unprofitable. There will be better spots.

If you know he can play 22+ like that and wouldn't do that with KK+ call is profitable ofcourse..but thats some very strong knowledge, doubt you can rely on that..

[darinvg]

I was thinking this was probably AQ+ 66-TT. JJ I'm auto calling but I let the TT go because I don't like to gamble...

[suzzer99]

You realize if you really thought that was his range this is a terrible fold, right?

[DDBeast]

Yes, if that is his range, indeed terrible fold. Though I would probably drop 66 and add JJ. I'm still calling, but folding 99, this just isn't an overpair very often.

[Q..]

Keep in mind that there are 4 ppl behind and ~6% chance someone of them has QQ+, and i dont think you can remove QQ+ from hes range completely, thats not likely but not unreal. That play isn't much worse then allin with 77 which we are happy to put in hes range for our equity calculations.

[darinvg]

Yeah, I guess if that's his range it's bad but it's just a guess. I really have no idea what his range is. It could be AK 77-JJ. Then it's a fold right?