NL10 buy pot here?

[WantToLearn]

Ok, the villain is multitabling. He plays ~20% of his hands, raising ~10% preflop. His overall postflop aggression (all streets average) is 4, his agression on flop is 13. He can fold - he sees 20% of all flops, but only 8% of all turns. This is like >200 hands.

So should I buy this flop? It´s not all too likely that he connected.

He has to fold >56% of the time if I bet $3, and >63% should I bet $4.

Have a go?
And how much to bet?

Any advice welcome.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $11.40
BB: $5.95
Hero (UTG): $10.90
UTG+1: $9.50
MP1: $9.85
MP2: $12.35
MP3: $12.70
CO: $9.85
BTN: $2.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
Hero calls $0.10, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $0.40</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.35) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $1.00</font>, 1 fold - Hero ???

[LearningCurve]

I try this sometimes but generally it's against a less agressive villain. Isn't terribly expensive to try though, but I'd err on the side of $3.00 rather the $4.00.

Actually I'd probably prefer to do this on an unpaired board. I think it's hard to represent much more than an overpair here. Afterall, how likely is it that we have a trips or a FH on this board, and if we did would we really raise right off on this dry flop? I don't think so. I can see that aggressive villain may not be as quick to fold as we would like and I don't think we want to bloat the pot much with 66.

In summary, I like the line but think I like it more on an unpaired rag board.

[justscott]

Are you sure its for sale? Whats your plan when villain repops you?

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
Whats your plan when villain repops you?

[/ QUOTE ]

His raising 10% of hands preflop might roughly translate to "Group 1" and "Group 2" hands plus some Group 3 hands plus all pairs, or something like that. So, more often than not, he only has overcards.

Saying "he needs to fold x% of the time" means I assume he has me beat if he doesn´t, and I will then fold.

I don´t expect any huge profits here, but I just wondered if raising to make him fold might be marginaly +EV.

In the actual hand, I just wasn´t daring and folded.

[illini43]

I think this is a good spot for a check/raise, but you need a plan of attack for the turn if he calls. Also, if he 3bets, what do you do?

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a good spot for a check/raise, but you need a plan of attack for the turn if he calls. Also, if he 3bets, what do you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess I must fold then.

See, if he doesn´t fold to a raise, then for one he has me beat, and also he is not going to release his hand, maybe very correctly so, as he only has ~$6 left after he flatcalls a raise, so he´s getting better than 1:1 should he get the rest in.