NL$50: When set gets raise - Stove & Equity calculations

[ExplainPlease]

<font color="green"> 25/16/2.5 player over 130hands No other information having just taken a NL$50 shot. </font>



Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $88.85
BB: $46.25
UTG: $13.52
Hero (CO): $49.18
BTN: $49.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($3.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.75</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7.50</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $4.75


Pot odds: 3.75+7.50+2.75:4.75 OR 3:1 25% equity required(Correct?)


River: ($18.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $11.00</font>

29.75: 11 = 3:1 also roughly25% equity required(Correct?)






Turn Ranges

Tight: 23s, 55 Equity: 13%
Wider: 55,A5s-A4s,32s,32o Equity: 32%
Widest: 55,A5s-A4s,54s,32s,54o,32o Equity: 44%


What i'm asking you is, how wide would you say his range is? What would you expect a player to raise this turn with?

[whyzze]

umn...why aren't AK, AA, KK in your ranges?

why didn't you 3bet the turn?

[Kasane]

You're ahead of sooooo much. You think btn flat called with AA/KK or AK pf? possible, but really unlikely. Does villain chk 55 on the flop after being checked to? more possible, but stupid... and still unlikely. 23? Is button calling with 23 preflop? Not with those stats.

2pr is villain's most likely holding. Maaybe pp plus flush draw like Kxcc. Most likely is 54 -- would explain the flop chk and the turn raise. Villain with those stats is betting flop with an A usually, or a K. If btn thinks that UTG checked a monster on the flop but by turn is convinced he has squat, then I can see Ax/Kx 2pr as being much more likely. His button calling range on a pf mr is really wide (and should be).

Note that your hand is really, really unlikely. No way he can predict that you're that strong. I reraise the turn and go for value right there.

25% equity needed or whatever -- but you've got like 80% or more. Raise for value. You're not calling for your outs.

[ExplainPlease]

Kasane - I disagree with alot of your assumptions, however this is a reply i wanted(peoples opinions on villans range).


You've contradicted yourself though, you seem to be putitng him on hands you can beat?

[ QUOTE ]
23? Is button calling with 23 preflop? Not with those stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely is 54 -- would explain the flop chk and the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ] he limps 54 but not 23?

Is there [/b]much [/b]difference in villans or your opinion in these hand values?


Also, he has RAISED the turn - Do you expect him to raise with Ax? Kx?

Can you give me your definitive range on the turn please(similar to format i typed).

Thanks mate

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
umn...why aren't AK, AA, KK in your ranges?

why didn't you 3bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think my equity exceeds 50% combined with FE.

He rarely limps AA/AK/KK IMO, this would be part of his wider range however but perhaps only 1 combo out of the 16 of AK(Since i think he raises 15/16 of the AKo combos).


Could you provide your range please mate

[Perk76]

What is the point of this?

UTG is out of the hand, so you got to put button on something. Too me if your beat its cause button has 55. You beat a ton of two pair hands and top pair ace rag hands. Get the money in.

[Keitan]

It's hard to put button on a hand here, possibly 55 but more likely some kind of combo draw. But based on the action you have to assume you're way ahead on the turn and you should definitely 3bet there imo prepared to call a shove. I think your line is too passive.

[Perk76]

To put it further, there are damn near zero NL50 players that are just calling on the button with AA/KK/AK the majority of the time. And its not gonna happen from a 25/16 player.

[whyzze]

imo if 23 is in his range then so should AA/KK/AK..thats all.

the fact that we dint 3 bet the turn or lead the river is a major leak.

[ExplainPlease]

[ QUOTE ]
imo if 23 is in his range then so should AA/KK/AK..thats all.

the fact that we dint 3 bet the turn or lead the river is a major leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

SO 23 is similar to AA when on the button facing 2 players?

Can you explain this, you've lost me.


[ QUOTE ]
What is the point of this?

UTG is out of the hand, so you got to put button on something. Too me if your beat its cause button has 55. You beat a ton of two pair hands and top pair ace rag hands. Get the money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assign a range, no offense but if you dont want to do this please don't post in this thread.